UK Economics Weekly Is the OBR too gloomy? Given the persistently disappointing performance of productivity, it is entirely understandable that the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) decided in this week’s Budget to adopt more pessimistic... 24th November 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Changes in UK tax will not affect oil prices Changes to the tax treatment of some North Sea oil and gas fields will no doubt be welcomed by the industry and could help to prevent production falling back over the next few years. However, we doubt... 23rd November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Budget Response – Chancellor defies OBR’s gloom As expected, the Chancellor Philip Hammond was constrained by the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) gloom over the economic outlook. Nonetheless, recent favourable fiscal trends and some timely... 22nd November 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Bank recapitalisation pushes equities to fresh highs The surge in Indian equities since the start of the year has continued over the past month, with the benchmark Sensex stock index hitting an all-time high in early November. The latest leg up has been... 22nd November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update UK Autumn Budget 2017 Checklist This checklist is intended to help clients keep track of the key measures and numbers announced during the Chancellor’s Autumn Budget at 12.30pm Wednesday 22nd November 2017 and provide some instant... 21st November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Oct.) Despite deteriorating in October, the general trend in the public finances this year has still been an improving one. Nonetheless, the expected downward revisions to the OBR’s economic forecasts will... 21st November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Budget Preview – OBR will box the Chancellor in The Chancellor’s room for manoeuvre in the Budget on 22nd November will be severely restricted by a gloomier outlook for economic growth. We expect a broadly fiscally neutral package of measures to... 16th November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is the US stock market in for a taxing time? It is tempting to attribute the 20% surge in the S&P 500 since the US elections last November to the prospect of tax reform. But while this may have played a role, it does not appear to have been the... 16th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Which assets will the ECB buy in 2018? The ECB’s decision last week to extend its bond-buying well into 2018 means that it will probably need to change the composition of its purchases. After all, it has already had to reduce its purchases... 3rd November 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Tax plan cuts the mortgage interest deduction The tax bill released today halved the size of new mortgages from which interest can be deducted, from $1 million to $500,000. That will hit prices of homes valued at over $500,000, and the... 2nd November 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Republicans’ tax plan edges closer to the finish line The House GOP tax bill released earlier today suggests that Republicans are edging towards their goal of passing tax reform this year. The proposals would add $1.5trn to the deficit over ten years, as... 2nd November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Oct.) Recent fiscal data suggest that most of the euro-zone’s peripheral countries are continuing to improve their budgetary positions. But Italy is an exception and has come under fire for a lack of fiscal... 2nd November 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Retail sector on the ropes Despite the sustained strengthening in the Australian labour market, retail sales have been unusually weak in recent months. Admittedly, some of this weakness can be explained by weak price pressures... 31st October 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Fading reform hopes roil Brazilian markets Financial markets in Brazil have come under pressure over the past week as a split in President Temer’s ruling coalition has cast doubt over important parts of his reform agenda. The trigger for the... 27th October 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update One chart to watch for Argentine investors The performance of President Macri’s Cambiemos coalition in last weekend’s legislative elections has given a boost to reform hopes, but we can’t escape the feeling that investors are glossing over the... 26th October 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Korea GDP (Q3) GDP growth in South Korea rose to a seven-year high in q/q terms last quarter as the economy brushed off the rising tensions on the Korean peninsula. Provided conflict is avoided, South Korea should... 26th October 2017 · 1 min read
