UK Economics Focus Spring Statement Preview – Banking the growth windfall Things seem to be going the Chancellor’s way at the moment (for a change). Not only did GDP grow more strongly in 2017 than the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) predicted, and the public... 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Debt worries building Kenya’s public debt load is not particularly large, but the recent run-up in debt is clearly not sustainable. Our core view is that the government will tighten policy and that the debt burden will... 5th March 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Renewed boom in productivity remains elusive Following a decade when productivity growth averaged barely 1% per year, we anticipate a modest acceleration to 1.5% over the next few years, principally because the low unemployment rate, rising... 5th March 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Initial thoughts on the National People’s Congress China’s retention of an “about 6.5%” growth target for GDP in 2018, while expected, undermines the argument that growth is being demoted as a central policy concern. Growth is likely to slow we... 5th March 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Federal Budget (2018) Finance Minister Bill Morneau didn’t deliver any new major tax or spending measures in the 2018 Federal Budget, despite massive US corporate tax cuts and widespread fears of NAFTA’s potential demise... 27th February 2018 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Looser fiscal policy means Treasury yields have further to rise 27th February 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Looser fiscal policy spells more trouble for Treasuries The deal done in Congress at the beginning of this month will potentially result in even larger federal budget deficits than those seen during Ronald Reagan’s time as president. This is a key reason... 27th February 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Import duty hikes unlikely to aid local manufacturing Recent hikes to import duties on various goods appear to be an attempt by Prime Minister Modi and the BJP to shore up popular support ahead of a clutch of state elections this year, and the general... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Painful budget prioritises smaller deficit South Africa’s budget suggests that President Cyril Ramaphosa is putting a renewed emphasis on narrowing the fiscal deficit. We think that the shortfall will narrow in the short term, but that the... 21st February 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Singapore Budget: Preparing for old age Singapore’s government looks likely to raise taxes in its Budget next week to help fund the costs of its rapidly ageing population. But the country’s strong fiscal position leaves it much better... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Budget deal raises risks further ahead The budget deal will raise federal spending this year by as much as 0.7% of GDP, providing an extra fiscal stimulus to an economy already boosted by the recent tax cuts. While that will mean 2018 is a... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Will even looser fiscal policy really be good for US equities? 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly An oasis of record low interest rates If global equity markets are fearing higher interest rates, as this week’s fall suggest, then Australia and New Zealand offer something of an oasis as both the RBA and RBNZ dropped some heavy hints... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s budget deficit to narrow further The Egyptian government has finally made inroads into its large budget deficit and we expect the shortfall to narrow further over the coming years. But the public finances remain in a poor state and... 7th February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Dec.) December’s figures brought yet more good news on the current health of the public finances. And we think that stronger GDP growth will result in a more rapid improvement further ahead. 23rd January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly How ambitious is the grand coalition’s plan for Germany? The fiscal proposals agreed by Angela Merkel and Martin Schulz as part of their plan to renew Germany’s grand coalition amount to a headline-grabbing 1.5% of annual German GDP and include abolishing... 19th January 2018 · 1 min read
