Global Economics Focus Short-term risks of protectionism are overstated Even if the US and China were to follow through on their recent protectionist threats, the impact on global growth in the next year or two would be small. Moreover, a bigger and more damaging... 18th April 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Privatisation plans facing turbulence The government has set an ambitious privatisation target for FY18/19, emboldened by exceeding target last year. But meeting this year’s target is dependent on a smooth sale of a large stake in Air... 17th April 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Economic recovery will peak this year We expect that economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa will continue to accelerate in 2018. This recovery will be driven largely by South Africa and Nigeria, where growth is set to pick up by more than... 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Trade war fears mount The growing threat of a US-China trade war is the key risk to the outlook. The tariff measures announced so far don’t amount to much, but any escalation in trade tensions that leads to a significant... 5th April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Does AMLO’s energy self-sufficiency plan make sense? Mexican presidential candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s (AMLO’s) goal to stop importing refined oil within three years might be a vote winner, but the large investment into domestic refining... 3rd April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Fiscal policy will determine future path of Brazil rates Brazil’s central bank appears to have been spooked by the weakness of the recent inflation data, but we think that the conduct of fiscal policy will ultimately have a much greater bearing on how... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Corporate tax cuts wouldn’t boost the economy much The Australian government’s plan to cut the corporate tax rate from 30% to 25% by 2026/27 wouldn’t be a boon for the economy for two reasons. First, the tax rate would need to be cut much further to... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Prospects for the rural economy are bright After taking a significant hit in the aftermath of demonetisation in late 2016, India’s rural economy has regained momentum in recent months. Future prospects for the rural economy look bright, in... 28th March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Jan./Feb.) & Public Finances (Feb.) January’s labour market figures provided clearer signs of a revival in earnings growth, suggesting that it won’t be long before we start to see sustained rises in real pay. Meanwhile, government... 21st March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia and the sanctions threat The fall in Russia’s external liabilities over the past few years has reduced the extent to which its economy might be adversely affected by the imposition of additional financial sanctions. By the... 20th March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly The OBR is still too gloomy Following November’s Autumn Budget, we argued that the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) had become too pessimistic about the outlook for economic growth. Although the economy has performed... 16th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Should we be worried about Polish fiscal policy? Fiscal policy in Poland is set to be loosened further this year, which is one reason why economic growth is likely to remain strong. There aren’t any imminent concerns about the health of the public... 14th March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Spring Statement Response – Jam tomorrow While the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) latest forecasts failed to deliver the expected “growth windfall”, the Chancellor still managed to maintain an upbeat tone in the Spring Statement... 13th March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update UK Spring Statement 2018 Checklist This checklist is intended to help clients keep track of the key economic and fiscal forecasts announced during the Chancellor’s Spring Statement at 12.30pm Tuesday 13th March 2018 and to provide some... 12th March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus US fiscal stimulus to have limited global impact The Trump fiscal stimulus, which has turned out to be larger than seemed likely a few months ago, should boost economic growth in the US a little, and encourage the Fed to press on with six rate hikes... 9th March 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Bahrain and Oman: austerity to gather pace to cap debt Public debt-to-GDP ratios in Bahrain and Oman are on a worrying path and we expect the pace of austerity to be stepped up over the coming years to slow the rise in debt. However, that will come at the... 8th March 2018 · 1 min read
