Europe Economics Weekly Tensions between Italy and EU ratcheting up The EU is almost certain to reject Italy’s draft budget. In our view, it is most likely that a re-drafted budget would still fail to meet the EU’s rules, so Italy will probably be put into an... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ to slow bond purchases, but not due to US US insistence that provisions against currency manipulation be a part of any future trade deal with Japan has raised suggestions this week that Japanese policymakers, particularly those at the Bank of... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Sep.) Given lower-than-expected borrowing in the first five months of the fiscal year to August, the OBR is likely to revise down its forecast for the deficit this year alongside the budget. But lower-than... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa budget speech, Angolan recession, Ethiopian reshuffle Despite the weakness of the economy, South Africa’s new finance minister will probably use next week’s budget review to tighten fiscal policy, rather than to announce new stimulus measures. On a... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Share buybacks won’t prevent fiscal slippage In an effort to put its finances back onto the track set out in this year’s budget, the government is now considering ordering state-owned firms to initiate share buybacks, according to reports this... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Taking stock of Amlo’s policy proposals The platform of Mexico’s president-elect Andrés Manuel López Obrador (Amlo) has become clearer in recent weeks and a sudden lurch to the left when he takes office in December seems unlikely. One... 18th October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi: fresh political shock and oil prices key risks to watch The fallout from the disappearance of Saudi journalist, Jamal Khashoggi, has supposedly shifted investors’ attention to the Saudi government’s rising debt burden, but we think that these concerns are... 18th October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Modest slowdown masks large divergences Prospects for Europe have deteriorated somewhat as slowing global demand has begun to affect exports and a sharp rise in bond yields has darkened the outlook for Italy. Some of the major players... 17th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Turkey and Argentina not out of the woods The collapses in the Turkish lira and Argentine peso last quarter have caused bank and sovereign debt risks, respectively, to mount in those countries. Meanwhile, financial vulnerabilities are brewing... 17th October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Implications of an Italy-EU budget clash On its own, the inevitable clash between the EU and the Italian Government is unlikely to have much of an economic impact, at least in the near term. However, the situation could well escalate next... 16th October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Recovery losing steam Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa will probably strengthen a touch in 2019, but growth across the region will remain weaker than consensus expectations. We think that growth in Nigeria will slow... 16th October 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Back down to earth in Q3 Japan’s economy was always likely to slow in the third quarter after the surge of output it generated in the second. But the latest data have still been rather disappointing. While investment remains... 15th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Bolsonaro backtracking, Argentina’s austerity Business friendly candidate Jair Bolsonaro looks on course to win the second round of Brazil’s presidential election later this month, but recent noises from the campaign trail have called into... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Banks still struggling, another look at Japan’s debts The government has indicated that it will be more lenient in applying antimonopoly legislation when assessing regional bank mergers. That should pave the way for a further consolidation of... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Debt: Is there another crisis looming? A widespread US debt crisis is unlikely but, over the next few years, over-leverage in the non-financial corporate sector, particularly the oil & gas, utilities and telecoms industries, could trigger... 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Rating downgrades are another threat for Italy Rating downgrades as soon as the end of this month may well push Italian bond yields higher, with adverse effects on the economy and the banks. Further downgrades to junk status seem feasible in... 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
