China Economics Update China to buck the trend of rising equilibrium rates In much of the world, interest rates are likely to settle at higher levels than was the case prior to the pandemic. But China is a key exception, with its shrinking population, slowing productivity... 29th November 2023 · 5 mins read
RBA Watch Tightening cycle is now over We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep interest rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting on 5 th December. And while the resilience of trimmed mean inflation could prompt another 25bp rate... 29th November 2023 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of New Zealand Meeting (Nov. 23) 29th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Nov. 2023) Our Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economic growth across Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to pick up in 2024, but a challenging external... 28th November 2023 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack UK Markets Chart Pack (Nov. 2023) The rebound in the activity data in November has convinced investors that the first interest rate cut will happen later, in August next year instead of June. Our view that core inflation will ease... 28th November 2023 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Nov. 2023) Our Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments After a sharp slowdown this year, GDP growth across the Middle East and North... 28th November 2023 · 1 min read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA-15 (November 2023) The decline in inflation in Brazil to 4.8% y/y in the middle of November means that – barring a major surprise in the full-month outturn – the central bank is on course to lower the Selic rate by... 28th November 2023 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Nov. 2023) China’s economy is making headway again after stalling during the summer. A step up in policy support looks set to deliver a modest cyclical recovery but trend growth remains under pressure. 28th November 2023 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) Israel’s central bank left interest rates on hold at 4.75% again today and the communications continued to emphasise risks to the inflation outlook. But policymakers provided the first hint that an... 27th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM disinflation entering a new phase Following a temporary reversal in Q3, EM inflation has started to fall again in the last few months. While this is set to continue, we think it marks the start of a second phase in the EM disinflation... 27th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Focus BoJ policy rate will reach 2% by 2030 The recent period of high inflation in Japan has kick-started a virtuous cycle between wages and prices. If inflation expectations remain elevated and structural forces push up the neutral rate of... 27th November 2023 · 15 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria resists hikes, Zambia debt, Transnet problems Zambia and Angola raised interest rates this week in response to high inflation, but Nigeria didn’t. Indeed, the scheduled CBN meeting for this week didn’t even take place. The Bank now has its work... 24th November 2023 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs continue to point to stagnation in DMs The S&P Global PMIs have provided misleading signals about the strength of activity in the US and Europe this year. But, for what it’s worth, the flash surveys for November suggest that DMs are ending... 24th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly FES creates a “clearer path” for Macklem It would be a stretch to say the government showed fiscal restraint in the Fall Economic Statement, but the announcement of only a few billion dollars in extra spending measures means that Finance... 24th November 2023 · 6 mins read
