Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s hiking cycle, Poland’s consumer recovery Turkey's central bank delivered another large 500bp interest rate hike this week but it also signalled that its tightening cycle was very close to an end. While the local elections in March may be... 24th November 2023 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Q3 strength unlikely to last, CBSL cuts again GDP growth rebounded strongly across most of Emerging Asia last quarter, but we doubt this strength will last. We expect growth to slow in the near term as weak exports and tight monetary and fiscal... 24th November 2023 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Homegrown inflation set to slow further Following a rather hawkish speech by RBA Governor Michele Bullock, the financial markets now consider it more likely than not that the Bank will lift interest rates further next year. However... 24th November 2023 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ drama ensues, Saudi-China currency swap The surprise delay to the OPEC+ meeting to next week has only added to speculation that the slide in oil prices in recent months and the backdrop of the Israel-Hamas conflict could prompt the group to... 23rd November 2023 · 7 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Nov. 2023) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India’s economy continues to show resilience this year and annual GDP growth is likely to come in... 23rd November 2023 · 1 min read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Nov.) Mexico’s mid-month inflation reading of 4.3% y/y in November provides signs that the disinflation process is running out of steam. And while Banxico opened the door to the start of a monetary easing... 23rd November 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank likely to cut rates in Q2 next year Despite the Riksbank Executive Board insisting that it might raise interest rates again in the coming months, we would be very surprised if it does so. Instead, we think the next move will be a rate... 23rd November 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) delivered another 500bp interest rate hike, to 40.0%, at today’s meeting and suggested that it is very close to the end of the tightening cycle. A final 250bp hike in... 23rd November 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (November 2023) Despite the rise in the euro-zone Composite PMI in November, it remained consistent with the economy contracting 0.2% in Q4. Meanwhile, the breakdown provides further evidence that the labour market... 23rd November 2023 · 2 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ will signal that tightening cycle is over The labour market is weakening in earnest and inflation is falling faster than anticipated. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand therefore won’t lift interest rate any further at its upcoming meeting on 29... 22nd November 2023 · 8 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (November 2023) Our Latin America Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Brazil and Mexico will outperform others in the region this year, but that’s likely to flip... 21st November 2023 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Nov. 23) The economy’s third-quarter strength was not the start of a renewed acceleration and we continue to expect GDP growth to weaken. Regardless, resilient economic growth has not prevented a continued... 21st November 2023 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (November 2023) EM GDP has proven stronger than expected this year, but we think growth will weaken in the coming months and come in below consensus in 2024. Despite recent upside surprises, inflation has resumed its... 21st November 2023 · 0 mins read
