Japan Economics Update BoJ set to hike further as business conditions strengthen The Q4 Tankan Survey struck all the right notes from the Bank of Japan’s perspective. It showed that business conditions are improving, profit margins remain elevated, and that firms are upbeat about... 15th December 2025 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly ICT services still riding the AI boom The Quarterly Services Survey report, released to little fanfare this Thursday, suggests that third-quarter GDP growth was as strong as 4.5% annualised, driven again by AI-related double-digit... 12th December 2025 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada unmoved by positive jobs data The Bank of Canada kept its policy rate at 2.25% this week, wrapping up a year in which it has cut interest rates by a cumulative 100bp. Barring any shocks, the Bank appears comfortable keeping the... 12th December 2025 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Kenyan shilling, South Africa’s port deal Kenya’s central bank cut interest rates by another 25bp earlier this week, to 9.00%, but the extent of further monetary loosening is likely to rest on what happens next with the shilling, which is... 12th December 2025 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Colombia’s fiscal risks, Mexico’s China tariffs The Colombian senate’s rejection of President Petro's tax bill adds to our concerns that the country's already-fragile public finances are likely to deteriorate further ahead of next year’s election... 12th December 2025 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Our forecasts in 2025 – Inflation miss, Bank Rate hit At this time of year it is useful to look back at how your forecasts have done and to learn from any mistakes to improve your future forecasts. Both we and the consensus underestimated inflation again... 12th December 2025 · 10 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Tempering the optimism Market moves over the past fortnight show that investors are becoming more optimistic about the euro-zone economy, but we are less bullish on the growth outlook. Meanwhile, the recent acceleration in... 12th December 2025 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Economy bigger than thought and poised to rebound Rebased national accounts data released this week show that Japan’s nominal GDP is around 5% higher than previously estimated, which in turn implies that the ratio of public debt to GDP is lower. This... 12th December 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukraine support, CEE rate hikes? There has been further wrangling ahead of the EU leaders’ summit next week about providing a “reparations loan” to Ukraine. Given Ukraine’s dependence on European support, failure to reach agreement... 12th December 2025 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly BoT meets amid border clashes, Taiwan’s export boom The Bank of Thailand is likely to restart its easing cycle next week, against a backdrop of weak activity, deflation, an appreciating currency, and political/geopolitical uncertainty. Meanwhile... 12th December 2025 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Soft labour market data won’t keep RBA from hiking When the Reserve Bank of Australia left rates on hold this week, it clearly signalled that it has a tightening bias. Although the weak November jobs report complicates the outlook somewhat, we suspect... 12th December 2025 · 5 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch BoJ will lift rates to 1.75% by 2027 The Bank of Japan will almost certainly lift its policy rate to 0.75% at its upcoming meeting. And while government subsidies will push headline inflation below 2% next year, the strength of... 12th December 2025 · 8 mins read
BoE Watch Balance to tip in favour of a rate cut We think the balance will tip in favour of a 25 basis point rate cut to 3.75% on Thursday 18th December. But it will be close. And with Bank Rate now within the Bank’s 2-4% estimate of the neutral... 11th December 2025 · 6 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Dec 2025) We expect GDP growth to average around 1% annualised over the next four quarters as household spending, investment and exports all remain subdued, while the latest budget won’t provide much short-term... 11th December 2025 · 1 min read
China Economics Update CEWC signals limited stimulus but some rebalancing The readout from China’s Central Economic Work Conference suggests that monetary and fiscal policy will remain supportive next year but that any additional easing will be modest. Instead, the focus... 11th December 2025 · 4 mins read
