Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

CEE easing cycles shifting down a gear

The Hungarian central bank’s decision to opt for a smaller interest rate cut at its meeting this week fits into a broader theme that policymakers in parts of the EM world are moving towards a slower...

21st June 2024 · 8 mins read

India Economics Weekly

Bond index ambitions realised, Q3 Outlook

India's government will achieve a long-held policy objective next week when JPMorgan adds the country's local bonds to its largest EM sovereign bond index. While an important milestone, we expect the...

21st June 2024 · 3 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

Concerns over weaker yen will prompt July rate hike

The Bank of Japan is concerned that the weak yen will result in a renewed acceleration in non-energy goods inflation and we think that the slide of the exchange rate to multi-decade lows this week...

21st June 2024 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Slowdown in activity not due to supply shortages

Some commentators have been arguing that the recent weakness in economic activity reflects a shortfall of supply rather than weaker demand. However, business surveys suggest that supply constraints...

21st June 2024 · 5 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Riksbank to leave rates and guidance unchanged

Having cut the policy rate by 25bp at its last meeting, we think the Riksbank will stick with its guidance that it will keep rates on hold next week. But with inflation likely to fall below 2% in the...

20th June 2024 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economic Outlook

Weak growth to make fiscal challenge harder

The economies of Latin America started the year on the front foot, but the strong growth rates recorded in early 2024 are unlikely to be sustained and growth in many parts of the region is likely to...

20th June 2024 · 21 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Life still left in the EM easing cycle

The outcomes of the EM central bank meetings over the past 48 hours or so underscore the point that, while the EM monetary easing cycle is likely to continue over the coming quarters, it will no...

20th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Global Economics Update

What if central banks stopped remunerating reserves?

The proposal to save governments money by ending interest payments on commercial banks’ reserves is a lot more complicated than some of its advocates suggest. The extreme version could either cause...

20th June 2024 · 5 mins read

UK Economics Update

BoE may cut rates in August, but rates may reach 3.00% later

The Bank of England predictably left interest rates unchanged at 5.25% today but continued to give the impression that the pieces of the puzzle are almost in place for it to cut rates. This lends some...

20th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Asia Economic Outlook

Policy easing to begin soon

We expect economic growth in most countries in Asia to slow in the second half of 2024, as tighter fiscal policy, high interest rates and weaker global growth all weigh on demand. Inflation is back to...

20th June 2024 · 28 mins read

Europe Economic Outlook

On the mend

The euro-zone has come out of a long period of stagnation and will expand at a moderate pace over the coming two years. The recovery will be faster in some southern economies, such as Spain, than in...

20th June 2024 · 28 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

Bank of England Policy Announcement (20th Jun. 2024)

20th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Lebanon on the brink, Hajj underway, Morocco rates

Tensions between Hezbollah and Israel have ratcheted up in recent weeks and now threatens to draw Lebanon directly into the war. The economy is already in the midst of one of the worst crises on...

20th June 2024 · 6 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack

Emerging Markets Chart Pack (June 2024)

After a strong start to the year, aggregate EM GDP growth will slow over the coming quarters. Within this there will be regional variation, with Emerging Asia the outperformer and Latin America the...

20th June 2024 · 1 min read

India Economic Outlook

Economy in good shape as Modi 3.0 begins

Prime Minister Modi begins his third term with a weakened mandate, but an economy that is primed to grow by 6.5-7% per year between 2024 and 2026. That would put India on course to become the world’s...

20th June 2024 · 16 mins read