US Data Response Consumer Confidence (Jul.) & Producer Prices (Jun.) The latest confidence data suggest that although consumers remain cautious, at least they aren't panicking. Elsewhere, the modest 0.1% m/m increase in producer prices in June is another illustration... 13th July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Core inflation still subdued in Emerging Europe Although inflation rose across Emerging Europe last month, our estimates suggest that core price pressures remain weak. As a result, above-target headline inflation should present little barrier to... 13th July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian Central Bank leaves rates on hold The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) left its benchmark refinancing rate on hold at 8.00% today, citing robust economic performance and that inflation is within the target range. Looking ahead, we think... 13th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Bernanke to take centre stage This week's congressional testimony from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will be closely watched for hints that the FOMC is any closer to launching a third round of large-scale asset purchases. Even though... 13th July 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly How is China’s slowdown affecting emerging Asia? Figures released on Friday showed that China’s economy grew by just 7.6% y/y in the second quarter, the weakest pace since the first quarter of 2009. The lead article this week examines the effect of... 13th July 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia keep rates on hold, no change likely soon Bank Indonesia (BI) today left its main policy rate unchanged at a record low of 5.75%. Although inflation is likely to rise sharply in the second half of the year, with global demand set to remain... 12th July 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Spike in agricultural prices unlikely to stoke inflation A sharp jump in some agricultural commodity prices has stoked fears of a renewed spike in inflation in Latin America. But we think that those concerns are misplaced. Indeed, we expect the agricultural... 11th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What to expect from inflation for the rest of this year A further fall in inflation this year is largely “baked in the cake”. Here we outline the main factors set to influence inflation over the rest of 2012. By the end of the year, it could be below 1%. 11th July 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Jun.) Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation fell in June on the back of easing core price pressures and a modest drop in food inflation. 11th July 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Jun.) Egyptian inflation fell to a nine-month low in June on the back of weaker food inflation. Nonetheless, this is unlikely to pave the way for looser monetary policy – at least until the political... 10th July 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Jun.) June’s consumer confidence survey, released today, shows a slight dip compared to May but we suspect that underlying sentiment is weaker than the headline index suggests. The poll was taken nearly a... 10th July 2012 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Jun.) Consumer price inflation tumbled last month. Underlying price pressures are weak and will be no constraint to further policy easing. Premier Wen made clear over the weekend that the government intends... 9th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly No need to fear another recession Although it is very clear that the US economy has lost a lot of momentum, there are no real indications that it will soon come to a complete standstill or even go into reverse. The latest ISM surveys... 9th July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Lower oil prices threaten investment prospects The faltering global economy has driven commodity prices lower, with Canadian oil prices down sharply from levels earlier this year. Although oil prices have risen somewhat over the past week, we... 5th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Inflation outlook improves The near-term inflation outlook has improved significantly in recent weeks. Inflation has fallen below 3% for the first time since the end of 2009. It will come under further downward pressure from... 4th July 2012 · 1 min read
