Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Nov.) Following the uptick in yesterday’s flash manufacturing PMI, the renewed rise in small business confidence in November adds to the evidence that activity will rebound this quarter. 25th November 2015 · 1 min read
RBI Watch Window for further loosening has closed The Reserve Bank of India has cut policy rates by 125bp so far this year, but there are a number of reasons to think that it will keep the repo rate on hold not just at next week’s policy meeting but... 25th November 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly Consumer Prices (Nov.) Weaker-than-expected Mexican inflation in the first half of November underscores the lack of price pressures in the economy. This reinforces our view that the central bank is likely to raise interest... 24th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Rate hikes looming in Turkey The Turkish central bank left interest rates on hold today, but given the economy’s exposure to Fed tightening and with inflation set to rise even further, rate hikes look likely over the coming... 24th November 2015 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Labour market conditions brighten in October The 271,000 surge in non-farm payrolls last month puts to rest fears that the earlier slowdown could be the start of a worrying downturn. The decline in the unemployment to 5.0% in October leaves it... 23rd November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is a housing bubble inflating again in Ireland? Comments from the outgoing governor of Ireland’s central bank that he “knows” that there won’t be another housing bubble smack of hubris. While there does not appear to be a bubble in the housing... 23rd November 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Will underlying inflation continue to rise? We believe that the recent strength in the Bank of Japan’s new core inflation measure reflects the lagged pass-through to prices of the weaker yen rather than a pick-up in domestic price pressures... 23rd November 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Deficit-funded spending plan unlikely to concern investors Canada’s new Federal Finance Minister has indicated that the government will forge ahead with its deficit-funded spending plan in an effort to support a flagging economy. Even if that means running... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Corporate balance sheets appear healthy The rise in credit spreads this year has been interpreted by some as a signal that the corporate sector is dangerously over-leveraged. At an aggregate level we can find very little evidence of this... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Inflation to rise more gradually in the UK than US The release of the UK and US inflation figures last week provided a reminder of why the MPC is likely to raise interest rates later than the US Fed. Inflation rates in both economies will pick up... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) & Retail Sales (Sep.) The annual headline inflation rate was unchanged at 1.0% in October but will soon rise sharply, as the drag from lower gasoline prices fades. Meanwhile, core inflation will stay close to 2.0% as the... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier markets scramble as Fed hike approaches Central banks across the world’s frontier markets are preparing themselves as the US Federal Reserve finally moves toward its first rate hike in nine years. Central bankers in Angola, Ghana, Zambia... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Paris tragedy will have limited economic effects It goes without saying that the loss of life and the social impact of the Paris attacks dwarf any consideration of their economic consequences. But we doubt that the near-term economic impact will be... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Wage growth may soon pick-up If the recent improvement in Australia’s labour market is sustained, then wage growth will soon accelerate from its current 17-year low. An increase in productivity growth at the same time would keep... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Crisis or recovery? Concerns about the outlook for emerging markets look increasingly overdone. Pockets of vulnerability exist, but in our view EM growth is more likely to recover over the next 3-6 months than it is to... 19th November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Underlying household spending remains strong The underlying picture for household spending remains positive. Real household spending in Q3 looks likely to have grown by around 0.8% q/q, the rate seen in Q1 and Q2. And while retail sales volumes... 19th November 2015 · 1 min read
