Japan Data Response Ind. Prod., H’H Spending, Unempl. & Cons. Prices (Feb.) Today’s activity data suggest that Japan’s economy continued to recover in Q1 while the labour market tightened further. However, very weak underlying price pressures highlight that the Bank of Japan... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Exports should rebound from recent slump After a long period of disappointment, the recent pick-up in global manufacturing activity points to a rebound in non-commodity export growth in the coming months. We think it would take a marked... 30th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German, Spanish & Belgian Flash CPI (Mar.) March’s declines in headline consumer price inflation in Germany, Spain and Belgium reflected some temporary factors. But the big picture is still that underlying inflation throughout the euro-zone... 30th March 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Services set to pull inflation higher A recent acceleration in producer prices of services combined with more upbeat survey evidence suggest that the prices that consumers pay for services will soon start picking up again. However, there... 30th March 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Economic growth to slow again Economic growth has picked up recently, but we aren’t convinced the economy has turned the corner, particularly not when that growth is still so unbalanced. Non-commodity exports are lagging and... 29th March 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Recent dip in oil prices not a major concern for the Gulf The recent drop in oil prices, from around US$56pb at the start of March to just over US$51pb at present, is unlikely to be a major cause for alarm in the Gulf. For one thing, oil prices are still... 29th March 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Mar.) The rebound in small business confidence in March largely reflects seasonal patterns and the bigger picture is that the survey points to only modest gains in industrial activity. What’s more, the... 29th March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Brazil breathes sigh of relief as meat scandal subsides The scandal over Brazil’s meat sector, which at one point appeared to threaten the country’s economic recovery, seems to have faded just as quickly as it escalated. The crisis exploded following the... 28th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can the ECB break its forward guidance? The ECB’s forward guidance about asset purchases and an extended period of low interest rates need not prevent it from starting to normalise policy should the inflation outlook so warrant. But it... 28th March 2017 · 1 min read
RBA Watch The RBA’s primary concern may soon change Although the Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting on Tuesday 4th April won’t be very exciting, as the RBA will leave interest rates at 1.5% for the sixth meeting in a row, events over the next month... 28th March 2017 · 1 min read
RBI Watch RBI may have to tighten soon In light of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) signalling the end of the loosening cycle in its most recent policy meeting in February, most analysts are now expecting the central bank to keep rates on... 28th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update February’s drop in EM inflation mainly a China story EM inflation fell sharply last month but this was driven almost entirely by a New Year-related drop in food inflation in China. This will reverse in March, meaning aggregate EM inflation is likely to... 27th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Have we underestimated sterling’s inflation impact? CPI inflation surprised on the upside again last week, largely due to a few components that tend to be more responsive to exchange rate movements. This begs the question of whether we (and many others... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) The small decline in the headline inflation rate to 2.0% in February, from 2.1%, was softer than expected, particularly considering higher gasoline price inflation. The bigger story though continues... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) The drop in the manufacturing PMI in March is hardly a disaster as the index had climbed to a three-year high in February. More problematic is that the survey points to a renewed moderation in price... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly Consumer Prices (Mar.) Mexican inflation rose to a fresh seven-year high of 5.3% y/y in the first half of March but the details of the data contained some signs that the upward pressure on prices is easing. Nonetheless, we... 23rd March 2017 · 1 min read
