Nordic & Swiss Economics ECB move shifts goalposts for SNB; Löfven’s back! The ECB’s new monetary policy strategy means that the SNB is even less likely to be in a position to start raising rates in 2023, which is what investors currently expect. And it reinforces our view... 9th July 2021 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Less scarring means lower inflation and higher tax revenues The bigger and longer-lasting rises in commodity and component costs means that we now think that CPI inflation will rise to a peak of 4.0% at the turn of the year. But if we are right in thinking the... 9th July 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary’s inflation surprise, Russia & OPEC+ The surprisingly large rise in Hungarian inflation in June to its highest rate in almost nine years suggests that the risks to our interest rate forecast are skewed to the upside. Elsewhere, the... 9th July 2021 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Inflation concerns will prove misplaced A further jump in government bond yields in India this week points to growing expectations of monetary tightening, perhaps fuelled by concerns over rising inflation. But while CPI data next week are... 9th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Singapore bouncing back, rate cut for the Philippines The government in Singapore is starting to ease restrictions, and the success of the country’s vaccination programme will hopefully allow a rapid return to normality. This should set the stage for a... 9th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (June) The small increase in headline CPI inflation and small decrease in the Norges Bank’s target measure of inflation will make no difference to the immediate outlook for monetary policy, not least because... 9th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch New climate change facility not a game changer At its July meeting we expect the Bank of Japan to outline that it will offer interest-free loans to banks under its new fund-provisioning measures aimed at addressing climate change. Beyond that... 9th July 2021 · 8 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Pandemic unlikely to herald period of higher inflation With producer prices rising at their fastest pace in years and goods shortages showing no signs of easing, the risks to inflation seem to be tilted to the upside. However, we aren’t convinced that a... 9th July 2021 · 4 mins read
China Data Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Jun.) After reaching a 12-year high in May, producer price inflation dropped back in June as the rally in global commodity prices faltered. Consumer price inflation declined too, on the back of a sharp drop... 9th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We don’t think the sell-off in risky assets will continue While we think that the stellar performance of many “risky assets” over the past year will not be replicated over the next few, we also doubt today’s generalised sell-off will continue. We are... 8th July 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB’s new strategy consistent with looser for longer The details of the monetary strategy review were slightly less radical than had been suggested in parts of the financial media. But the changes announced today still amount to a historic shift away... 8th July 2021 · 4 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Jun.) The further rise in Brazilian inflation, to 8.3% y/y, means Copom will continue to hike when it meets next month. But the data are not quite enough to prompt a shift from 75bp hikes to a larger 100bp... 8th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jun.) The rise in Mexico’s core inflation to 4.6% y/y in June was largely driven by temporary factors which will gradually unwind. Nonetheless, given Banxico’s recent hawkish shift, and with headline and... 8th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia: rates to remain low for a long time The fact that Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) left its policy rate on hold at 1.75% today despite the poor economic outlook means any further loosening is unlikely. But with the recovery set to be slow and... 8th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Jun.) Egypt’s headline inflation rate edged up to 4.9% y/y in June and is likely to increase further over the coming months. Against this backdrop, we think the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) will keep... 8th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Jun.) The further rise in Russian inflation to a stronger-than-expected 6.5% y/y in June means the central bank (CBR) is likely to up the pace of tightening when it meets in a couple of weeks. A 75bp hike... 7th July 2021 · 2 mins read
