UK Economics Chart Pack Truss stamps down on inflation The possible policy of the new Prime Minister, Liz Truss, to freeze the utility price cap at £2,500 until sometime in 2024 will dramatically lower the near term path for CPI inflation. Rather than... 7th September 2022 · 8 mins read
Europe Chart Pack ECB to press on with rate hikes as gas crisis intensifies European gas prices have been on a rollercoaster ride over the past month, rising to a peak of €340/MWh before falling back to around €240 to leave them about 50% higher than at the time of the ECB’s... 7th September 2022 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland’s central bank brings hiking cycle to an end The National Bank of Poland (NBP) slowed down the pace of its tightening cycle again today with a 25bp rate hike to 6.75%. There was no new guidance in the communications in terms of the central bank... 7th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Focus What has happened to the Phillips curve? Hopes that policymakers can engineer a soft landing rest heavily on the belief that wage growth can be tamed without a surge in unemployment. This ‘Phillips curve’ relationship has changed recently... 6th September 2022 · 27 mins read
UK Economics Update Utility price freeze an effective but expensive sticking plaster If the new Truss government implements a freeze on domestic gas and electricity prices then inflation may peak at around 11% in October this year, rather than 14.5% in January next year as we... 6th September 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Nord Stream shut-off adds to risks facing Germany Gazprom’s decision to shut Nord Stream 1 indefinitely has added to the risks facing Germany’s economy, but the size of the economic damage is still highly uncertain. And the €65bn fiscal package... 5th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response PMIs (Aug.) August’s batch of PMIs showed that activity in the Gulf economies pulled further ahead of their non-Gulf counterparts even as external demand has weakened on the back of softer global growth... 5th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Aug.) Inflation hit 80.2% y/y in Turkey in August, breaching 80% for the first time since 1998. Even so, the central bank is likely to remain beholden to President Erdogan’s wishes for looser policy and it... 5th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea: slowing growth bigger concern than inflation Inflation and activity data published over the past few days have surprised to the downside, supporting our view that Korea’s tightening cycle will finish by the end of the year. 2nd September 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Heading for double digit inflation and recession There has been some good news this week – including July’s labour market data and the continued rise in gas stocks – but the big picture is still very bleak, not least because even after the steep... 2nd September 2022 · 9 mins read
Global Economics Update Global manufacturing PMI now in recession territory The fall in the global manufacturing PMI in August implies that global industrial activity is contracting, and the further decline in the new orders and export orders sub-components suggests that... 1st September 2022 · 3 mins read
ECB Watch ECB has some catch-up to do, starting with 75bp hike There is a case for the ECB to raise rates by 1% next week. But that would probably be too much for many policymakers to bear, so we expect them to step up the pace of tightening with a 75bp hike. It... 1st September 2022 · 8 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs, Korea Trade, Indonesia CPI Manufacturing PMIs across Asia fell back again in August, with the readings for Taiwan and Korea especially weak. We are not expecting any improvement over the coming months, with weaker global demand... 1st September 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI (Aug.) Swiss inflation came in a little higher than expected in August, at 3.5%, while the core rate was unchanged at 2.0%. Although these rates are enviably low by international standards, the SNB is likely... 1st September 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Political rollercoasters across the region Relatively peaceful election proceedings in Kenya and Angola this month have provided a lift to investor sentiment. But with the respective losing presidential candidates challenging official results... 31st August 2022 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Resilience so far, but much tougher times ahead Economies across the region were generally resilient in Q2 despite tightening financial conditions and the war in Ukraine. Russia’s downturn was milder than expected, Turkey’s economy has held up well... 31st August 2022 · 12 mins read
