Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea to continue tightening into 2022 We were among the first forecasters to call that the Bank of Korea (BoK) would begin tightening monetary policy this year and it duly delivered today, raising the policy rate by 25bps to 0.75%. Given... 26th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Aug. 2021) The rise in Brazilian inflation to 9.3% y/y in the middle of August provides Copom with plenty to worry about and will keep it on course to hike the Selic rate by another 100bp (to 6.25%) next month. 25th August 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Inflation expectations – what to watch The inflation expectations of households, businesses and the financial markets will probably rise in the coming months as actual CPI inflation jumps to over 4.0% later this year. But as the rises are... 25th August 2021 · 4 mins read
India Chart Pack Capital outflows would be no major macro concern Foreign portfolio outflows from Indian financial markets have been easing this month, bucking the broader EM trend. This may have been driven in part by the improvement in the virus situation. Looking... 25th August 2021 · 9 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Fourth wave could delay recovery GDP is on track to return to its pre-pandemic level this month but, with the number of coronavirus infections now picking up, there is a growing risk that the recoveries in some sectors go into... 24th August 2021 · 8 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (August) Mexico’s headline inflation rate dropped to a weaker-than-expected 5.6% y/y in the first half of August, but the further rise in core inflation will continue to concern the central bank. We expect... 24th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs show growth and inflation easing a touch The flash PMIs for August confirm that growth in developed economies is slowing from a strong pace. This normalisation was always to be expected after the rapid post-pandemic revival, but the renewed... 23rd August 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Policy to stay loose despite first signs of MPC dissent The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s August policy meeting show the first signs of dissent as MPC member Jayanth Varma argued that a hike in the reverse repo rate and a change in policy stance would be... 23rd August 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Strong Q4 still on the cards With daily cases surging to unprecedented levels and states of emergency extended to mid-September this week, there may not seem to be much light at the end of the tunnel for Japan’s economy. However... 20th August 2021 · 10 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Inflation concerns, economy off to a bad start in Q3 The latest batch of labour market data will have done little to ease the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) concerns that the coming rise in inflation could be sustained in 2022. But we are not... 20th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Romania’s fiscal risks, Israel’s 4th wave, CBRT pressure Romania's new finance minister has a tough job ahead to keep the public finances on a sustainable path, especially as the PM is seeking to raise spending. Elsewhere, Israel's fourth virus wave has... 20th August 2021 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norges Bank in the final furlong; CHF on the up We expect the Norges Bank to deliver on its plan to start to raise interest rates, in September, which could offer some respite for the beleaguered krone. Meanwhile, data released next week are likely... 20th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Consumer Prices (Jul. 2021) While headline inflation rose in July due to a pickup in energy inflation, it’s far weaker than the figure initially reported for June due to the introduction of a new CPI basket this month knocking... 20th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update What to make of rising inflation expectations Market-based measures of inflation expectations have risen during the past few months, but they are still consistent with our view that inflation will remain well below target over the medium term... 19th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Inflation risks growing Inflation is at, or close to, multi-year highs across Latin America which has prompted a slew of interest rate hikes across the region. We think that central banks in Brazil, Mexico, Chile and Peru... 19th August 2021 · 14 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Gulf and oil prices, Egypt remittances, PIF’s Call of Duty The latest drop back in oil prices is unlikely to be of much concern to policymakers in the Gulf and we still think that there is a window of opportunity for fiscal policy to be loosened. Elsewhere... 19th August 2021 · 6 mins read
