Asia Economics Weekly Rate cut in Thailand, Taiwan applies to join CPTPP With the economy in the doldrums and deflation worries increasing, we think the Bank of Thailand will cut interest rates by a further 25bp at its meeting on Wednesday (most other analysts are... 24th September 2021 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norges Bank and Riksbank to follow different paths Having finally begun its tightening cycle this week, we forecast the Norges Bank to raise its policy rate to 1.50% by end-2022, which is more hawkish than is currently priced into the market... 24th September 2021 · 4 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Sep. 2021) The increase in Brazilian inflation to 10.1% y/y in the middle of September means that another large hike in the Selic rate at the Copom meeting next month is nailed on (we expect a 100bp hike to 7.25... 24th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Long Run Update Are we on the way to a bigger state? While it may take years or decades before the evidence is clear, there are tentative signs that the pandemic has accelerated a shift towards a bigger role for the state in advanced economies. 24th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Consumer Prices (Aug. 2021) Headline inflation stayed negative in August as a boost from Go To Travel base effects was offset by a major drag from fresh food inflation. But looking through one-off factors such as Go To and April... 24th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs show growth easing and inflation pressures rising The flash PMIs for September show that the pace of growth slowed across developed economies towards the end of Q3, suggesting that the boost to activity from reopening is fading. But inflationary... 23rd September 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: Erdogan gets his way with surprise rate cut Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) unexpectedly cut its one-week repo rate by 100bp to 18.00% today, despite the further rise in inflation in August, and we now think that further aggressive easing is... 23rd September 2021 · 3 mins read
CE Spotlight Will higher inflation force central banks to raise rates? We think a sustained period of inflation in the region of 3-4% over the coming years could be dealt with relatively easily by central banks. But if inflation were to rise much further than this... 23rd September 2021 · 33 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Sep.) The renewed rise in Mexican headline and core inflation in the first two weeks of September, to 5.9% y/y and 4.9% y/y respectively, ensures that Banxico will continue its tightening cycle at its... 23rd September 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Thinking through how we could be wrong on Evergrande If, contrary to our opinion and the consensus, a collapse of Evergrande ends up having a significant impact on the rest of the world, it will be because it first causes either major financial... 22nd September 2021 · 4 mins read
CE Spotlight Will a transition to net-zero cause higher inflation? A gradual transition to ‘net-zero’ emissions would have a modest impact on inflation but could still make life more difficult for central banks if it happened at a time when other pressures were... 22nd September 2021 · 6 mins read
India Chart Pack Global index inclusion would marginally boost bonds Speculation is building that India will be included in major global bond indices over the next year or so. If that happens, it would highlight the local bond market’s growing maturity and be cast as a... 22nd September 2021 · 9 mins read
Japan Economics Update Japan’s LNG shielded from Europe price spike for now Japan’s reliance on fixed, long-term contracts for its natural gas supply should limit the impact on consumers of the recent surge in gas spot prices currently being felt most acutely across parts of... 22nd September 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Aug.) South Africa’s headline inflation rate picked up to 4.9% y/y in August but the temporary factors behind the rise are unlikely to worry policymakers. Subdued core price pressures and the slow economic... 22nd September 2021 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack Data provide mixed signals on Delta impact The latest data provide mixed signals on the impact that the Delta variant is having on the economy. The high frequency indicators for high contact services suggest that activity levelled out in... 21st September 2021 · 9 mins read
Global Economics Update Surge in gas prices adds to near term price pressure In this Update, we answer six key questions about the surge in natural gas prices. The key point is that it will keep inflation in DMs and many EMs above central bank targets for a few months longer... 21st September 2021 · 6 mins read
