Europe Economics Update

ECB growing more uncertain about inflation outlook

The account of September’s ECB meeting revealed many policymakers believed that inflation may stay higher for longer than the Bank’s projections show. Recent developments have added to the upside...

7th October 2021 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

OPEC+ fallout, Oman’s upgrade, TUI cancellations

The OPEC+ meeting this week triggered a rise in oil prices and, while we expect prices to fall by next year, rising production means that overall oil export revenues for the Gulf economies should...

7th October 2021 · 7 mins read

Latin America Data Response

Mexico Consumer Prices (Sep.)

The rise in Mexico’s headline and core inflation to 6.0% y/y and 4.9% y/y in September adds to our view that the central bank’s tightening cycle has much further to run. We expect a further 125bp of...

7th October 2021 · 2 mins read

Japan Economic Outlook

Conditions for strong recovery finally in place

With the Delta wave having ebbed and the majority of the population now fully vaccinated, we expect a strong rebound in domestic demand over the coming months. But the inflation concerns that hang...

7th October 2021 · 21 mins read

Emerging Europe Data Response

Russia Consumer Prices (Sep.)

Russian inflation accelerated to a fresh five-year high of 7.4% y/y in September and, while this was mainly driven by a sharp increase in food inflation, the central bank is likely to continue its...

6th October 2021 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

NBP catches everyone off guard with a surprise hike

The National Bank of Poland (NBP) unexpectedly hiked its policy rate by 40bp to 0.50% at today’s MPC meeting, but the accompanying communications were underwhelming and suggest that the rate hike was...

6th October 2021 · 3 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Focus

What to expect from the next Czech government

The Czech parliamentary election that kicks off on Friday looks to be one of the most unpredictable for some time. A victory for the incumbent ANO party would continue the recent trend of loose fiscal...

6th October 2021 · 21 mins read

UK Economics

MPC to keep feeling the heat from inflation expectations

The recent sharp rise in public and market-based measures of inflation expectations has worried the Bank of England. Inflation expectations will probably rise further as actual inflation continues to...

5th October 2021 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Five reasons why Mexico’s recovery will disappoint

There are five key headwinds to Mexico’s economy, including high inflation and shortages in the auto sector, which suggest to us that the recovery will disappoint expectations from here. We now...

5th October 2021 · 4 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Changing HICP weights add to inflation uncertainty

Changes to the weights applied to the goods and services in the inflation basket pushed inflation up in January, but since April the new weights have kept the headline rate lower than it would...

5th October 2021 · 3 mins read

Nordic & Swiss Data Response

Switzerland CPI (Sep.)

Inflation is a rare beast in Switzerland at the best of times and the lower-than-expected September print means that we now doubt it will even breach 1% this year. Against this backdrop, the stage is...

4th October 2021 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Data Response

Turkey Consumer Prices (Sep.)

Turkey’s headline inflation rate rose further to 19.6% y/y in September and core inflation partially reversed its recent decline, but political pressure means that the central bank is likely to cut...

4th October 2021 · 3 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

“Transitory” inflation won’t spook the ECB

We have revised up our inflation forecasts this week and expect the surge in gas prices to keep inflation above the ECB’s target for longer than previously anticipated. Nonetheless, inflation looks...

1st October 2021 · 6 mins read

Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly

Opinions at Riksbank slowly starting to shift our way

The minutes from the Riksbank’s last meeting, which were released this week, indicate that half of the six Executive Board members think the time is approaching to dial the dovishness back a touch...

1st October 2021 · 5 mins read

Europe Data Response

Euro-zone Flash HICP (Sep.)

Euro-zone inflation looks set to continue on its upward trend and we think it will soon hit 4%. That makes it more likely that the ECB will scale back its asset purchases substantially in March. But...

1st October 2021 · 2 mins read