Africa Economics Weekly Food supplies, Nigeria’s iffy price data, Kenya unrest African economies are particularly vulnerable if the collapse of the Black Sea Grain Deal as well as India’s ban on the export of all non-basmati white rice leads to food supply disruptions. At the... 21st July 2023 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Inflation back at 2.0%, at least by one measure Headline inflation fell to 2.8% in June and, excluding mortgage interest costs, was in line with the 2.0% target. While the Bank’s preferred core measures are still higher, the weakness of retail... 21st July 2023 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed to pivot in H1 next year The Fed is almost certain to hike its policy rate by 25bp to between 5.25% and 5.50% at next week’s FOMC meeting, but we increasingly believe that will prove to be the peak. Despite the ‘higher for... 21st July 2023 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly BoE last to halt hikes and last to cut We think UK core inflation will ease to 2% by the end of 2024 as the effects of the rises in interest rates are felt. But the UK’s more persistent labour supply shortfall than elsewhere suggests this... 21st July 2023 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly How will the rice export ban affect the economy? The partial ban on rice exports announced this week will have a small impact on India's trade balance and, similarly, it is unlikely to reduce inflation much either. The bigger concern for... 21st July 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly New Zealand inflation will remain higher for longer The fall in New Zealand’s headline inflation rate in Q2 largely reflected base effects, with underlying price pressures remaining strong. Accordingly, we think inflation will return to the RBNZ’s... 21st July 2023 · 6 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Consumer Prices (Jun. 2023) Electricity tariff hikes that went into effect last month led to a rise in headline inflation. However, underlying inflation fell as was the case in Tokyo, for the first time in more than a year. Over... 21st July 2023 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi-UAE relations, Saudi inflation, Egyptian LNG A recent report in the Wall Street Journal suggests that tensions between Saudi Arabia and the UAE have increased. This may raise the threat of the UAE leaving OPEC+, which would result in global oil... 20th July 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (July 2023) This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 20th July 2023 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus How can Egypt unlock its economic potential? Egyptian policymakers’ commitment (or lack of) to economic orthodoxy continues to provide cause for concern and, while we don’t share the view that sovereign default is a serious risk, the near-term... 20th July 2023 · 19 mins read
Event Asia Drop-In: Is China in a balance sheet recession? 27th July 2023, 9:00AM BST Widespread angst around China’s growth outlook is fuelling a debate about whether the economy is in the kind of “balance sheet recession” that typified Japan’s experience in the 1990s.
US Fed Watch One last hurrah for the hawks Fed officials appear set on another 25bp rate hike at next week’s FOMC meeting, which would take the fed funds rate to a 22-year high of 5.25%-5.50%. But a run of softer inflation readings over the... 19th July 2023 · 9 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Jul. 2023) Our US Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We still think the economy is more likely than not to fall into a mild recession later this year, as... 19th July 2023 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Higher Bank Rate forecast, but peak in sight Despite the softer tone of the CPI inflation data for June released earlier today, we have raised our forecast for the peak in Bank Rate. Rather than rise from 5.00% currently to a peak of 5.25%, we... 19th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Event Drop-In: The Fed and ECB’s July meetings – and a lookahead to the BoE 27th July 2023, 3:00PM BST Rate hikes from the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank at their July meetings look like done deals – it’s the messaging accompanying those decisions that may prove key to what the banks deci
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Jul. 2023) Our India Chart Pack has been updated to reflect the most recent data and developments as well as our latest analysis. Our View: India’s economy is showing signs of coming off the boil and, with... 19th July 2023 · 1 min read
