Japan Economics Update Core inflation still far lower than elsewhere Comparing the proper inflation gauges reveals that core inflation in Japan remains far lower than elsewhere. And with most of the recent pick-up in core inflation reflecting soaring imports costs, the... 26th July 2023 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch RBA will deliver at least one more 25bp hike With inflation weakening faster than the Reserve Bank of Australia has anticipated, the Bank may well conclude that it has tightened policy enough to return inflation to target. However, with the... 26th July 2023 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Consumer Prices (Jun./Q2 2023) 26th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Lower core inflation in the pipeline Global inflation has almost halved since September last year and this trend has further to run. Admittedly, the fall in headline inflation so far mainly reflects the drag from lower energy price... 25th July 2023 · 16 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA-15 (July 2023) The Brazilian July mid-month inflation reading of 3.2% y/y suggests that price pressures are weaker than we and most others had thought. While we still think it’s most likely that the central bank... 25th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Event UK Drop-In: Bank of England – Another 50bps hike or back to 25bps? 3rd August 2023, 3:00PM BST Analysts are split on whether the BoE will repeat June’s 50bps rate hike at the August meeting or revert to the 25bps hikes now favoured by the Fed and the ECB.
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs set for rate cuts, despite hikes in DMs While the Fed and the ECB are set to hike interest rates this week, subsiding inflation means that the upcoming EM central bank meetings will tilt towards monetary easing. And we expect that the EM... 24th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (July 2023) This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 24th July 2023 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Clear signs that services activity is now slowing July’s flash PMIs suggest that activity slowed further at the start of Q3. Industry remains the weak spot, but the outlook for the services sector has also deteriorated noticeably. And while this... 24th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Jul. 2023) Strong immigration and the turnaround in the housing market raise the chance that the economy will avoid recession but, with the Bank of Canada back in hiking mode, we still judge that GDP will... 24th July 2023 · 1 min read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jul.) Mexico’s headline inflation rate eased further in the first half of July but the fresh rise in services inflation will be a concern for Banxico officials. The tightening cycle is unlikely to be... 24th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: end of Black Sea deal to add to near-term pain The end to the Black Sea grain deal has put Egypt’s vulnerability to rising global wheat prices back in the spotlight. Even if supply disruptions are avoided, higher wheat prices would add to strains... 24th July 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Jul. 2023) July’s flash activity PMIs suggest that the resilience in activity has eased further and that domestic inflationary pressures are starting to slow faster. That supports our view that the Bank of... 24th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (July 2023) July’s euro-zone PMIs are consistent with our non-consensus view that the currency union’s economy will remain in recession. But they also suggest that the labour market will remain tight, keeping... 24th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Emerging Asia Chart Pack (July 2023) This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 24th July 2023 · 1 min read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Flash PMIs (Jul. 2023) July’s flash PMI readings suggest manufacturers continue to struggle while the services sector remains resilient. And while manufacturing output prices inched up, the sizeable fall since the high last... 24th July 2023 · 3 mins read
