US Economics Weekly Markets on edge ahead of Jackson Hole The continued surge in long-term Treasury yields to their highest level since before the financial crisis, as expectations of an economic re-acceleration have mounted, sets a fraught backdrop ahead of... 18th August 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Spanish politics, Swiss industrial production This week saw Spain take a tentative step towards forming a new government, but there is a long way to go, and another general election may yet be needed. We also learnt this week that Swiss... 18th August 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (August 2023) Our Emerging Markets Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. EM GDP growth will be weaker than most expect over the coming quarters. And with... 18th August 2023 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Rupee hits an all-time low, new inflation forecasts The rupee dropped to an all-time low of 83.1/$ on Thursday and the depreciation this week may have been larger had the RBI not stepped up its FX intervention. The good news is that the central bank is... 18th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan won’t rush to tighten policy With the economy seemingly running hot and underlying inflation still accelerating, the case for tighter monetary policy looks increasingly compelling. However, we still expect the Bank of Japan to... 18th August 2023 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s fiscal position, destination Dubai, Gulf inflation Egypt’s government debt-to-GDP ratio jumped to 96% in FY2022/23, one of the largest ratios in the emerging world, but there remain reasons to think that the government will be able to avoid a... 17th August 2023 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: rate cuts unlikely before 2024 The central bank (BSP) in the Philippines today left interest rates unchanged for a third consecutive meeting and, although the economy weakened markedly in Q2 and inflation is nearly back to target... 17th August 2023 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India’s economy is showing signs of coming off the boil, and core inflation is moderating. However... 17th August 2023 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) Growth in the real economy appears to be gathering momentum, but with survey-based indicators still weak and credit conditions continuing to tighten, we expect that rebound to be short-lived. In... 16th August 2023 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Jul. 2023) CPI inflation fell to a 17-month low of 6.8% in July, as the effects of the lower utility price cap kicked in. But with services price inflation rising from 7.2% to 7.4% (Bank of England forecast 7.3%... 16th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ signals extended pause The Reserve Bank of New Zealand left rates on hold, as was widely expected. However, the minutes of today’s meeting were unambiguously on the hawkish side, with the Committee indicating the need to... 16th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) While the continued above-target gains in the CPI-trim and CPI-median core measures may cause some concern for the Bank of Canada, there were still some encouraging disinflationary signs in the July... 15th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Rapid Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Jul.) Nigeria’s headline inflation rate rose again to an almost-18 year high of 24.1% y/y, as the removal of fuel subsidies and the devaluation of the naira continue to push up prices. This fresh increase... 15th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Higher food prices pose risk to disinflation process Inflation across Emerging Asia should continue to decline over the coming months. However, the risks are to the upside amid uncertainty over the outlook for food prices. And while we are sticking with... 15th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Jul. 2023) Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate eased from 2.7% y/y in June to 2.3% y/y in July, the slowest outturn since the middle of last year and we think the headline rate will continue to edge lower... 15th August 2023 · 2 mins read
