Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Aug.) The Russian central bank’s 350bp interest rate hike, to 12.0%, at today’s unscheduled meeting is likely to be followed by further increases in the coming months. But there’s little the central bank... 15th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Sweden Consumer Prices (July) The unchanged readings for both headline inflation and the Riksbank’s target variable suggest that a further interest rate hike in September is highly likely. 15th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q2 2023) The sluggish pace of wage growth in Q2 reinforces our view that the Reserve Bank of Australia won't lift interest rates any higher. 15th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) While economic activity was generally more resilient than feared in the first half of 2023, we expect global growth to disappoint in the coming quarters. We doubt that another bout of policy stimulus... 14th August 2023 · 1 min read
India Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) Headline consumer price inflation accelerated to a 15-month high of 7.4% y/y in July amid the surge in food price inflation. While the RBI expects the sharp increase in food prices to prove transitory... 14th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Will euro-zone core inflation follow the US down? Core inflation has been falling for around a year in the US and we suspect that it won’t be long before it starts falling in the euro-zone too. However, while core goods inflation in the euro-zone is... 14th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina’s PASO brings shock therapy a step closer The surprisingly strong showing for far-right self-proclaimed “anarcho-capitalist” Javier Milei in Argentina’s primary elections (known as the PASO) suggests that there is popular appetite for a shock... 14th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) Our Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Although central banks in both Australia and New Zealand are unlikely to drop... 14th August 2023 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Naira widens, South Africa solar surge, Ghana CPI Two months on from the naira’s devaluation, the gap between Nigeria’s official and black market exchange rates is widening again suggesting that the CBN is once again propping up the naira and that... 11th August 2023 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina votes, more good news on inflation Argentines vote on Sunday in presidential primaries, known as the PASO, which should give a first sign of whether the country will buck the regional political trend and shift to the right at the... 11th August 2023 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Inflation and activity data at odds The sudden burst of disinflationary pressure, partly due to a moderation in non-housing core services, is another reason to doubt the narrative that the real activity is gathering momentum. 11th August 2023 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Encouraging CEE inflation data, Turkey’s gold tariff The July inflation data out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) this week suggests that our forecasts for interest rate cuts to arrive across the region over the rest of this year, and in early 2024... 11th August 2023 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Italy’s windfall tax, France’s cruise ship The kerfuffle over the Italian government’s planned windfall bank tax is not likely to have any lasting impact on the economy, not least because PM Giorgia Meloni moved swiftly to limit the damage... 11th August 2023 · 7 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (July 2023) The jump in Brazilian inflation to a slightly higher-than-expected 4.0% last month won’t stop Copom from lowering interest rates at its September meeting. By the same token, however, the figure... 11th August 2023 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly RBI cautious, government aims to cool food price rise The RBI kept the repo rate on hold at 6.50% as expected this week and maintained a hawkish tone amid the recent surge in food prices. And while several policy measures announced by the government this... 11th August 2023 · 4 mins read
