Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Fears EGP fall will trigger sovereign debt crisis overdone The latest fall in the Egyptian pound sends a strong signal that the authorities are committed to the shift to a more flexible exchange rate. And while the weaker currency poses a threat to the... 5th January 2023 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: pound fall a sign that officials are on right path The sharp fall in the Egyptian pound today, coming in the wake of last week’s move to ease FX restrictions, suggests that the authorities are starting to make good on their pledge to shift to a more... 4th January 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Dollar rebound may set the tone for early 2023 After struggling in the last quarter of 2022, the US dollar has started the new year with a bang. We think the greenback’s rebound has further to run over the coming months. 3rd January 2023 · 6 mins read
India Economics Update External vulnerabilities to ease a touch in 2023 India’s current account deficit is likely to have widened to 3% of GDP in 2022, the largest in a decade. We expect the deficit to narrow slightly in 2023 as commodity prices ease and domestic demand... 3rd January 2023 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap BoJ ends chaotic year in currency markets with a bang The BoJ’s surprise decision to widen the tolerance band around its yield curve control target earlier this week will hopefully prove the final curveball of what has been an eventful year across... 23rd December 2022 · 12 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Rise in gilt yields and sterling won’t last Even though we expect the Bank of England to raise interest rates further from 3.50% now to a peak of 4.50%, we doubt the recent increase in gilt yields will be sustained. Instead, we think yields may... 21st December 2022 · 9 mins read
FX Markets Chart Pack We expect the dollar to rebound in the new year The dollar has stabilised over the past month after its sharp fall in November, and we continue to think that a slowing global economy and worsening risk sentiment will lead to another (possibly final... 21st December 2022 · 9 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Assessing the fall-out from the change to the BoJ’s YCC The surge in government bond yields around the world in response to today’s decision by the Bank of Japan to tweak its policy of Yield Curve Control highlights the risks to international markets posed... 20th December 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What the Bank of Japan’s latest surprise could mean for markets Although upward pressure on the yields of Japanese Government Bonds and on the yen could continue for a while, we’re sceptical of claims that today’s Bank of Japan decision to tweak its yield curve... 20th December 2022 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Update BoJ’s YCC shift points to stronger yen The Bank of Japan’s unexpected decision to alter its yield curve control (YCC) policy has led to a surge in the yen today; we now expect the USD/JPY rate to drop further, reaching 125 by end-2023. In... 20th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Event Drop-In: The BoJ makes its move – What now for monetary policy? 1671609600 Does the Bank of Japan’s surprise announcement about changes to its yield curve control policy point to a fundamental shift in its monetary stance? Is this new regime defensible?
Event The World in 2023 - What to Expect in Financial and Commodity Markets 1673424000 Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing held this special 20-minute online briefing with Chief Markets Economist John Higgins and Chief Commodities Economist Caroline Bain on the outlook for financial
Capital Daily Recession fears may continue to weigh on risky assets Investors seem to have priced in a more downbeat outlook for the economy last week, but we think they are still too optimistic. Accordingly, we expect risky assets to come under more pressure over the... 19th December 2022 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap ECB steals the show, but the dollar rebounds After a choppy few days in financial markets, the US dollar is ending the week a touch stronger against most other major currencies as risk sentiment has worsened sharply in the wake of the latest... 16th December 2022 · 10 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the latest central bank bonanza The last round of major central bank meetings for the year has proven an eventful one, with some surprising messages sending financial markets into another policymaker-induced convulsion. Three key... 15th December 2022 · 8 mins read
Asset Allocation Update The World in 2023: What to look for in financial markets Two of the three topics we expect to dominate the global macroeconomic debate in 2023 – falling inflation and future monetary policy loosening – are now largely priced into markets in the US. The... 15th December 2022 · 9 mins read
