Africa Economics Update The naira’s march to fair value The devaluation of the Nigerian naira earlier this year appears to have brought it much closer to fair value, which will help to put the balance of payments on a more stable footing. The key now is... 13th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily The yen also rises (finally)? The surge of the Japanese yen ahead of next week’s BoJ policy announcement could still prove yet another false dawn. But with the monetary policy divergence that has driven the yen down over the past... 11th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa metals and current account, Ghana debt Reports suggest that metal producers in South Africa are contemplating cost-cutting measures on the back of the slump in global metals prices, presenting another headwind to the modest pick-up in... 8th March 2024 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Yen on the move as payrolls brings dollar back to square one Today’s softish US non-farm payrolls report, combined with Fed Chair Powell’s relatively neutral testimony to Congress earlier in the week, has put an end to the dollar’s strong start to 2024, and... 8th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly HUF struggles, Russia’s election coming into view The dispute between the Hungarian central bank and the government heated up further this week, which has fuelled a narrative that threats to central bank independence are responsible for the recent... 8th March 2024 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Rupee intervention, but not as you might think The rupee is outperforming almost all other EM currencies against the US dollar this year, leading to the usual speculation that the RBI is intervening to prop up the currency. There is evidence of... 8th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s Super Wednesday pulls it back from the brink Egypt finally made the long-awaited shift back toward economic orthodoxy on Wednesday with the pound being devalued, interest rates hiked aggressively, and a new and enhanced IMF deal agreed. There... 7th March 2024 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s orthodox policy shift back underway with IMF The announcement of an agreement over a new IMF package for Egypt, coming on the back of the rate hike and devaluation earlier today, represents a shift towards more orthodox policymaking. While it is... 6th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: Will Egypt's reforms fix the economic crisis? 6th March 2024, 11:00AM GMT The Egyptian central bank has announced steps to tackle its economic crisis, including a large devaluation and a bumper interest rate hike. But will it be enough?
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Interest Rate Hike & Devaluation The announcement minutes ago from the Central Bank of Egypt that it has devalued the pound and hiked interest rates by a bumper 600bp, to 27.25%, shows that policymakers are committed to the turn back... 6th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Three lessons from China’s Two Sessions We think there are three key points for investors to note from today’s announcements at the National People’s Congress annual “Two Sessions”, where the country’s authorities, among other things, have... 5th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia’s external rebalancing: less than meets the eye The sharp narrowing in Colombia’s current account deficit last year to its lowest level since the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis looks encouraging, but it was entirely a result of the... 4th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Morocco well placed to move towards floating dirham Morocco’s improving balance of payments position and the sharp slowdown in inflation should provide the central bank, Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM), with the confidence to take the next step toward a fully... 4th March 2024 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Calm in FX markets lowers the bar for further dollar strength The dollar has remained roughly unchanged against most major currencies over the past two weeks. Given that our expectations for upcoming data releases and central bank meetings – notably, nonfarm... 1st March 2024 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria rate hike, Kenya inflation, Zambia debt deal The Nigerian central bank’s 400bp interest rate hike should help provide respite to the naira and help to curb inflation. But Nigeria will need to shift away from interventionist fiscal and FX short... 1st March 2024 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB patient, SNB eyeing early rate cut This week's data releases will have reinforced the view of ECB policymakers that they should be patient before beginning to loosen monetary policy. Indeed, the monthly pace of services inflation... 1st March 2024 · 7 mins read
