Europe Economics Update What next for France? The results of France’s parliamentary elections mean it should avoid the large, unfunded fiscal expansion that two of the three major political groups were advocating. But it also means France is very... 8th July 2024 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily Wait-and-see in markets as France avoids far-right PM The surprising results of the French legislative elections have not triggered much of a market reaction. While investors appear to have been relieved by the far-right National Rally (RN)’s failure to... 8th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Treasury yields could fall further still, but not the dollar We expect Treasury yields to fall a bit further, but we doubt that will lead to a weaker dollar. 5th July 2024 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar down as more cracks emerge in US economy More evidence of softening in the US economy from data releases – notably, the ISM survey data and June’s employment report – weighed on US Treasury yields and left the greenback lower against most... 5th July 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Jul. 2024) The stronger-than-expected rebound in GDP in Q1 and the improving outlook for households suggests the next government, which the polls ahead of the election on 4th July imply will be a Labour one... 3rd July 2024 · 1 min read
FX Markets Outlook Rangebound dollar likely to fade towards year end The US dollar has edged higher over the past quarter or so, driven by the twin tailwinds of rising Treasury yields and US equity outperformance. We think these factors may continue to support the... 3rd July 2024 · 22 mins read
Capital Daily Yen still poised for a large rebound when Fed eases Despite the continued depreciation of the yen so far this year, we still expect it to rebound against the greenback supported by its relatively low valuation and the start of the easing cycle in the... 2nd July 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily French election first-round relief rally might not last Investors have welcomed the broadly unsurprising results of the first round of the French legislative elections, but the discount on French financial assets is still there and, in our view, likely to... 1st July 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar treads water ahead of US non-farm payrolls The US dollar index looks set to end the week broadly unchanged after core PCE came in line with expectations today. Yesterday’s presidential debate in the US also does not seem to have had much... 28th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus The US election and EMs Under a second Trump administration, the imposition of large tariffs on China would hurts its economy but could speed up investment in manufacturing capacity elsewhere. However, a broader global... 28th June 2024 (Updated 6th November 2024) · 7 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (June. 2024) GDP growth is likely to pick up over the coming quarters as inflation falls back and gives way to monetary easing cycles whilst the external environment will also be more favourable for most... 28th June 2024 · 0 mins read
Latin America Economics Update The Brazilian real at 30 Monday marks the 30th anniversary of the introduction of Brazil’s currency, the real, as part of a stabilisation plan (the Plano Real) which successfully tamed runaway inflation. For other EMs facing... 27th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Tight fiscal policy to constrain the recovery Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is set to accelerate over the next couple of years, helped by a more favourable external environment as well as falling inflation and interest rates. But tight fiscal... 27th June 2024 · 19 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack UK Markets Chart Pack (Jun. 2024) The stability of UK financial markets ahead of the UK general election is striking when compared to the sharp moves in French asset prices ahead of the French legislative elections. It’s probably... 27th June 2024 · 1 min read
FX Markets Update Assessing French election risk for the euro The upcoming French election continues to loom over euro-zone financial markets and the euro. We think it would take a worst case scenario in which France’s fiscal outlook worsens materially to... 27th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily A few thoughts on the yen’s latest woes Although it’s showed little signs of it lately, we still expect the yen to rebound against the dollar. 26th June 2024 · 4 mins read
