Africa Economics Weekly Bola goes big, but big enough? This week’s plunge in the Nigerian naira marked the latest positive step by President Bola Tinubu as he seeks to overhaul the economy, but there are still plenty of reasons to be cautious that this... 16th June 2023 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Update China, OPEC+ & the prospects of commodity currencies Despite faltering commodity prices and growing concerns around China’s economic rebound, most commodity currencies have held up reasonably well this year. But we continue to think that will change in... 16th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Africa Rapid Response Nigeria devalues the naira Reports that the Central Bank of Nigeria has devalued the naira would, if confirmed, represent another positive policy step by the new Tinubu administration. But we retain our reservations this is a... 14th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Sticky UK inflation is unlikely to keep Gilt yields higher forever The 10-year Gilt yield has continued to march higher on the back of recent data releases, outpacing the equivalent Treasury yield and putting upward pressure on the pound against the greenback. But we... 13th June 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update What does Emefiele’s suspension mean for Nigeria? The suspension and potential removal of Godwin Emefiele as Nigeria’s central bank governor raises hopes that there will be a shift away from the current unorthodox and interventionist monetary and... 12th June 2023 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Central bank surprises work against dollar ahead of FOMC The US dollar looks poised to end another week down a touch – the DXY index’s first consecutive weekly fall since April. That probably reflects yield gaps vis-à-vis most other developed markets (DMs)... 9th June 2023 · 9 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Colombian asset rally, encouraging inflation news Hopes that the latest political drama in Colombia will cause President Gustavo Petro's reform agenda to stall have sparked a rally in the country’s financial markets this week. But with the current... 9th June 2023 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA agriculture slump, rand recovers South Africa’s Q1 GDP figures released this week revealed a big drag from the agricultural sector. Some of the factors that weighed on output (namely the weather) are likely to prove temporary but... 9th June 2023 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update Won weakness likely to continue this year Dismal economic growth has established the Korean won as one of the worst-performing emerging market (EM) currencies against the dollar this year. We expect Korea’s bleak growth prospects and... 8th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey needs a significant adjustment in the lira Signs that newly re-elected Turkish president Erdogan is willing to move away from unorthodox economic policies has led to an increase in investor optimism towards his country. These developments are... 7th June 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar rebound skips a beat on FOMC ambivalence After a strong run since mid-May, the US dollar has stalled this week after a run of mixed data and Fed officials striking a cautious tone in recent speeches pushed US interest rate expectations a... 2nd June 2023 · 9 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Tinubu takes first steps, SA power projects progress In a positive early move, Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu removed fuel subsidies in his first week in power. But it looks like the fiscal savings will be spent, leaving public debt on an upwards... 2nd June 2023 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily EZ downside inflation surprise points to more euro weakness While we suspect that interest rate differentials between the euro-zone and the US might start to put a degree of upward pressure on euro-zone government bond yields and the euro, we think that the... 1st June 2023 · 7 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack Odds look stacked against risky assets Aside from the US stock market – which is being propped up by a handful of big name stocks and a serious dose of AI fever – most risky assets have struggled over the past month or so. We don’t think... 1st June 2023 · 12 mins read
FX Markets Chart Pack Crosswinds continue in currency markets The US dollar has rebounded in recent weeks as resilient US economic data and renewed hawkish noises from the FOMC have revived the “higher for longer” narrative, shifting relative interest rate... 31st May 2023 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Pockets of vulnerability in major EMs Financial risks across the major EMs look relatively well contained for the time being but there are some areas of weakness. Most immediately, following President Erdogan’s election victory the... 31st May 2023 · 5 mins read
