FX Markets Outlook Recessions likely to drive the dollar higher While “riskier” currencies have generally had the best of it over the past couple of months, the dollar has remained rangebound and, in aggregate, is broadly unchanged on the year. With the euro-zone... 28th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily We see Japan’s equities and the yen set for a U-turn We expect the yen’s weakness to reverse before long, weighing on the country’s stock market. And while the latter might hence hold up a bit better in US-dollar terms, we doubt it will do especially... 28th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Risk premia fall back Risk premia have fallen across the region over the past month. In the region’s largest economy, Nigeria, that has come on the back of a marked policy shift since President Tinubu took office in late... 28th June 2023 · 11 mins read
India Economics Update External vulnerabilities are diminishing The sharp narrowing in India’s current account deficit in Q1 was largely due to the strength in services exports. Looking ahead, we think the deficit will narrow to 1.0% of GDP across 2023 as a result... 28th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Will Latin American equities keep outperforming? Latin American equities have, in US dollar terms, fared even better than their US peers so far this year. We think that their outperformance will be interrupted by the global “risk-off” environment we... 27th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Starting gun fires for the EM easing cycle Central bank meetings this month suggest that we’re now on the brink of an EM monetary easing cycle. In China, the Loan Prime Rates were lowered in response to flagging growth. And elsewhere, some... 27th June 2023 · 8 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Strong currencies lend helping hand in inflation fight It’s been a good month for Latin American currencies, particularly the Brazilian real and the Colombian peso, which should help the disinflation process across the region. This is one reason behind... 27th June 2023 · 11 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Tourism’s long road to recovery The hit to tourism in the region from the COVID-19 pandemic finally appears to be over. Receipts and arrivals are now back to, or even above, seasonal norms in almost all countries. This will be... 27th June 2023 · 10 mins read
Capital Daily Rebellion in Russia; further weakness in the renminbi While the situation in Russia remains highly uncertain, our base case remains that the war with Ukraine will drag on for some time but continue to have a limited impact on broader financial markets... 26th June 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar bounces back on worsening growth outlook The US dollar has rebounded a bit this week on renewed signs that a global slowdown is underway and a growing sense that, like the Fed, most other central banks are also at, or near, the end of their... 23rd June 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Weak EZ PMIs point to lower euro and bond yields Lower-than-expected euro-zone PMIs in June support our view that economic activity will disappoint, which we think will push the euro and government bond yields down by the end of 2023. 23rd June 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly BRL on a tear, monetary policy divergence The strong performance of the Brazilian real appears to have been driven by a rise in the price of some of Brazil's key export commodities. But we expect these prices to fall back over the remainder... 23rd June 2023 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Update The fall and fall of the Swedish krona The rapid depreciation of the Swedish krona has pushed the currency down to its lowest ever level against the euro. Worse still, we do not think the krona is significantly below “fair value”, nor do... 22nd June 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Market implications of the UK’s inflation mess Yet another upside surprise to UK inflation today has put the spotlight squarely back on Gilts and sterling, both of which have come under pressure ahead of tomorrow’s Bank of England policy... 21st June 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What to make of policy shifts in Turkey and Nigeria Governments in Turkey and Nigeria have started to turn away from unorthodox economic policies in recent weeks, and in both cases currencies have been allowed to move closer to fair value. The key... 21st June 2023 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Has the dam burst for the dollar (and the yen)? The US dollar has fallen for a third week in a row, with the DXY closing in on its weakest level so far this year. But, although it is increasingly challenged by the current “risk-on” environment, we... 16th June 2023 · 10 mins read
