UK Markets Chart Pack More QE greeted with muted market reaction UK markets’ initial reaction to the £50bn of extra QE sanctioned by the MPC suggests that the announcement fell a bit short of investors’ expectations. Indeed, the pound strengthened shortly after the... 9th February 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Middle East Markets Monitor (Feb.) The Arab world’s markets have underperformed in January. The exception is Egyptian stocks, which are up by 25% since the beginning of the year. However, we think that Egypt’s recovery is unlikely to... 7th February 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Canadian dollar rally unlikely to persist The Canadian dollar has attracted plenty of attention again as it moved back to parity with the US dollar, reflecting increased optimism about prospects for the global economy. We suspect, however... 7th February 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Fiscal reforms still key to preventing excessive FX appreciation On past form at least, the latest set of measures announced by Colombia and Brazil to curb currency strength are unlikely to have a lasting impact on foreign exchange markets. Instead, fiscal reforms... 6th February 2012 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Can the good times continue to roll? “Risky” assets have made a bright start to 2012. Investors have welcomed a recent improvement in the US economic data, signs of greater fiscal coordination in the euro-zone as well as more support... 2nd February 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Market implications of an EMU break-up Risky asset markets have generally made a bright start to 2012. But our central scenario envisages a break-up of EMU this year initially involving Greece’s departure, an outcome that would presumably... 24th January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Growth fears drive gilt yields lower The further drop in gilt yields appears to have reflected declining expectations for GDP growth and related falls in long-term interest rate expectations, rather than fiscal developments. Indeed, the... 19th January 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Farewell to the euro The euro-zone is slipping into a recession which we expect to be deep and prolonged and to result in the break-up of the single currency area. This will be a major drag on other European economies... 16th January 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for the euro? The euro fell below $1.27 against the dollar again on Wednesday – close to its lowest level since the autumn of 2010. We do not think its slide is over. Both the relative prospects for monetary policy... 11th January 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela: Devaluation may be delayed until after elections After the Venezuelan government devalued the official exchange rate peg against the dollar in January of both 2010 and 2011, speculation has been mounting that it will do so again soon. But while... 10th January 2012 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack US stock market resilience unlikely to last The US stock market recovered some poise in December. But while we do not expect equity prices to collapse in 2012, we think there are three reasons why they may continue to languish – our end-year... 4th January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian forint falls to record low, but IMF help looks elusive With the forint falling to a record low against the euro today, the news from Hungary goes from bad to worse, coming on the back of the breakdown in negotiations with the IMF and EU last month, a... 4th January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Gilt yields fall further despite growing fiscal fears UK gilt yields have continued to fall over the last month, despite growing fiscal fears and the limited boost to gilt prices provided so far by the Monetary Policy Committee’s further round of asset... 13th December 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Bond market implications of future economic divergence The US and European business cycles have become highly synchronised in recent decades. But this does not preclude significant economic divergence in response to major structural events. The last of... 6th December 2011 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack A chink of light at the end of a torrid month Growing stresses in the banking system fuelled by an escalation of the euro-zone crisis prompted the major central banks to announce measures aimed at enhancing their capacity to provide liquidity... 2nd December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook Markets underestimate euro-zone threat Despite further large falls in gilt yields and little overall change in equity prices over the last quarter, we doubt that markets have fully appreciated the likely impact of the euro-zone debt crisis... 30th November 2011 · 1 min read
