China Economics Update Equity markets find their footing, but rebound unlikely After a tumultuous few months, Chinese stock markets stabilised ahead of a week-long recess for the Golden Week holidays. Meanwhile, market interest rates remain near record lows and the PBOC appears... 30th September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil reinstates FX swap programme as real fall spooks policymakers 30th September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Brazil’s crisis deepens Brazil has slipped deeper into crisis over the past month. The slump in the real economy has gathered pace, with our GDP Tracker now suggesting the output could have contracted by up to 4% y/y in Q3... 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Dollar bond credit spreads unlikely to balloon We do not expect the stripped spread of the JP Morgan EMBI Global Index to rise much further. But with US Treasury yields likely to increase substantially in the months ahead, we think the overall... 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukrainian bonds rally on debt deal Ukraine’s debt-restructuring deal has led to a rally in the country’s bond market and eased pressure on the hryvnia . Meanwhile, although most of the region’s equity markets have fallen over the past... 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Impact of strong dollar to fade next year External deflationary pressure from the strong dollar and lower commodity prices will continue to keep both headline and core inflation unusually low in the shortterm . The strong dollar's downward... 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian real stabilises following sharp sell-off The good news is that the Brazilian real is no longer in freefall and appears to have stabilised at around 4.0/$ in recent days following verbal intervention by policymakers. We’re still taking a... 28th September 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Global headwinds, local responses batter markets African financial markets mostly performed poorly over the past month due to a combination of foreign shocks and botched domestic policy responses. We are increasingly worried about the risk of an... 28th September 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia’s FX reserve depletion has further to run The fact that Saudi Arabia is drawing down its foreign exchange reserves should come as little surprise given that the Kingdom is running a current account deficit and also facing sizeable capital... 28th September 2015 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Another drop in frontier market currencies Uncertainty over the outlook for monetary policy in the US and renewed concerns about the health of China’s economy are weighing heavily on frontier market currencies. The weakest currency has again... 25th September 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Time to worry about a weak rupiah? The Indonesian rupiah has fallen again over the past week, hitting a fresh 17-year low against the US dollar. The sharp drop in the currency, which is down by a cumulative 33% since the start of 2013... 23rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Currency sell-off takes its toll on Russia and Turkey The Russian ruble and Turkish lira have been among the hardest hit EM currencies this quarter and this has already started to feed through into the real economy. Inflation is on the rise (again)... 22nd September 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Brazilian real hits 4/$, unlikely to snap back We think that the sell-off in the Brazilian real has been overdone to some degree. But whereas a decline to around 4/$ in 2003 was subsequently followed by a period of rapid appreciation, several... 22nd September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Financial risks still low in most Ems Our Capital Economics Risk Indicator (CERI) suggests that, for all the recent talk of an “EM crisis”, financial risks in most of the emerging world are low. There is certainly nothing in the CERI to... 22nd September 2015 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack FM Jaitley is playing a risky game India’s Finance Ministry continues to tread on dangerous ground by becoming increasingly vocal in its calls for further monetary easing. Most recently in an interview over the weekend, Finance... 22nd September 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Financial market implications of the Fed’s inertia The FOMC’s decision to leave its target range for the federal funds rate unchanged has triggered a rally in government bonds and weakness in the dollar, which in turn has weighed on equities in the... 18th September 2015 · 1 min read
