Europe Economics Update How will the ECB react to the euro’s rise? The renewed rise in the euro since yesterday’s ECB press conference may increase speculation that the Bank will have to change tack. But we doubt that it will be too worried about the currency at... 21st July 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Meteoric rise in the dollar will soon run out of fizz The recent rise in the Australian dollar to a two-and-a-half year high of just under US$0.80 has been meteoric. But while the dollar may orbit around that level for a bit, we don't think it will be... 21st July 2017 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Are bond “bubbles” bursting? Although the yields of government bonds remain very low compared to their averages since the early 1980s (see Chart below), this does not imply that their valuations are still extremely inflated, as... 19th July 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Bond market takes RBI intervention in its stride The bond market has taken the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) surprise announcement of increased open market sales of government securities in its stride, with yields on local-currency debt remaining... 19th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Jun.) While June’s unexpectedly large drop in CPI inflation is unlikely to prove a turning point, it will nonetheless help to keep the MPC’s hawks in the minority. 18th July 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update How will the Riksbank react to the strengthening krona? The krona’s recent rise means that exchange rate effects will detract from Swedish inflation in 2018. But with domestic inflation set to rise further above 2%, this should not prevent the Riksbank... 17th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Fall in sterling supporting tourism sector While the fall in the pound has yet to provide a significant boost to overall net trade, it has already started to support the tourism sector. And we think that net tourism spending will provide a... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Any changes to exchange rate regime likely to be cosmetic Another widening of the renminbi’s trading band is now a distinct possibility, following hints in a PBOC-run newspaper earlier this week. But such a move would make no difference to the trajectory of... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Yen to weaken further US 10-year government bond yields have climbed to a two-month high in recent days and we expect them to rise further in coming months. By contrast, the Bank of Japan has underlined its determination... 11th July 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly External pressures mounting in Pakistan The “devaluation” of the Pakistani rupee earlier in the week is a reminder of the country’s precarious balance of payments position. Pakistan will soon be forced to either let the currency fall much... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Should we worry about low EM credit spreads? Following a long-lasting decline, emerging market (EM) credit spreads have rarely been much lower than they are now since the financial crisis. This does not mean that they are bound to pick up any... 4th July 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Equities, renminbi rise on state intervention Chinese equities ended June at a two-month high, likely supported by state buying. Increased intervention by officials also appears to have been responsible for the renminbi’s recent appreciation... 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Asian financial crisis twenty years on There are more differences than similarities between the situation now and the position many Asian countries found themselves in on the eve of the Asian financial crisis 20 years ago. But there is no... 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update New forecasts for the ruble and lira We have revised our forecasts for the Russian ruble and Turkish lira and we now expect a smaller rise in the ruble versus the dollar by the end of next year. We also now think future falls in the lira... 29th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the euro continue to climb? We think that the euro’s latest rise against the US dollar was a justified reaction to Mario Draghi’s hints that QE will be tapered early next year, despite warnings from the ECB that the comments... 28th June 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Rally in Canadian dollar may have run its course Despite hawkish comments from the Bank of Canada, we don’t expect the rally in the Canadian dollar to go much further. Given signs of a correction in the housing market, we doubt that the BoC will... 20th June 2017 · 1 min read
