EM Valuations Monitor Will EM equities’ valuations continue to climb? The latest surge in emerging market (EM) equities has seen the price/12 month forward earnings ratio of the MSCI EM Index climb further above its long-run average. Nonetheless, we still think that... 9th August 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Sharp rise in euro weighs on equities The euro has risen sharply over the past month and in early August reached its highest level against the US dollar since early 2015. Strikingly, the rise has occurred against a backdrop of broadly... 3rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Rational exuberance We don’t think that the valuations of many risky assets have become unsustainably high. This is because their rise has been supported by a structural decline in real interest rates, which is likely to... 3rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asian equities rapid rise continues Equity markets in Asia continued their rise in July. Meanwhile, currencies in the region generally strengthened against the US dollar 31st July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Big gains for Turkish equities behind us The surge in Turkish equities earlier this year appears to have been aided by improvements in the real economy, but the more recent rise has been due to global risk appetite. There is scope for... 31st July 2017 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier recovery still on track The recovery in frontier economies continued over the first half of this year. GDP growth averaged around 2.0% y/y in Q1, twice the rates seen in mid-2016. It would have been stronger still were it... 31st July 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Strains in Qatar’s markets ease There is growing evidence that the diplomatic crisis between Qatar and regional powers has (at least temporarily) hurt Qatar’s economy, but there are also signs that tensions in the country’s... 31st July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update A strong month for local markets Most African currencies and equity markets gained a bit of ground in July. Mozambique – where debt worries deepened – was a rare exception. 31st July 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Renminbi strengthens further against US dollar The Hong Kong dollar has continued to slide against the US dollar in recent weeks and may soon run into the buffers of the HKMA’s exchange rate band. The renminbi, by contrast, has been appreciating... 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Mixed performances for Nordic and Swiss currencies After fairly big rises in yields in June, July was a quieter month for Nordic & Swiss government bonds. There was more action in the currency market, with the Norwegian krone and Swedish krona rising... 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Regional inflation hits seven-year low Inflation has continued to fall across Latin America – our measure of regional inflation (excluding Argentina and Venezuela) dropped below 4% y/y for the first time since 2010 last month. This is due... 26th July 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Upward pressure on Egyptian pound likely to wane Egypt’s central bank appears to have been intervening in the foreign exchange market to prevent the pound from strengthening, but we think the forces putting upward pressure on the currency will soon... 26th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Central Europe: inflation eases, but not for long The scale of the decline in inflation in Central Europe over the past month has taken many by surprise and reinforced expectations in the financial markets that monetary policy will remain very loose... 26th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM consumers bouncing back EM retail sales growth picked up for a third consecutive month in May and is now running at a 12-month high. What’s more, the improvement has been widespread across different EM regions. In Russia and... 24th July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine peso has further to fall The Argentine peso has been the worst-performing EM currency over the past month, and we think it has further to fall. Our forecast is for it to weaken by another 10% against the dollar to 19/$ by end... 21st July 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Worst fears over Qatar crisis fade Diplomatic efforts have failed to bring an end to the stand-off between Qatar and the so-called Anti-Terror Quartet (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt and Bahrain). Encouragingly, though, there are signs that... 21st July 2017 · 1 min read
