Capital Daily How the turmoil is playing out within the stock market We suspect some of the recent trends in the relative performance of equity market sectors will fade or even reverse, perhaps even if the current turmoil persists. 24th March 2023 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update Credit spreads still have a long way to go before peaking There has been a rise in risk premia in the bond market since the start of the banking sector turmoil. But we think impending recessions will push corporate credit spreads up further from here. 24th March 2023 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update What to make of the banking turmoil & the dollar The ongoing struggles of the banking sector in the US and elsewhere has muddled the outlook for the dollar. But while we think the balance of probability has shifted against the greenback, we continue... 24th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA on a knife-edge With the minutes of the RBA's March meeting pointing to a slightly more dovish stance, there are growing risks to our forecast for continued tightening in April and May. We think the case for a pause... 24th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily What the Fed and BoE central bank meetings mean for markets With major central banks pressing ahead with rate hikes despite ongoing financial stability concerns, we think that the recent resilience of equity markets will prove to be short-lived even if, as we... 23rd March 2023 · 7 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Financial markets bruised, central banks hawkish Financial markets across Sub-Saharan Africa have struggled – and have underperformed their EM peers – since the global banking sector turmoil erupted. Amid broad risk-off sentiment, African sovereign... 23rd March 2023 · 10 mins read
Capital Daily Equity rally amid bond volatility seems complacent The recent resilience in US equities is at odds with the surge in volatility in Treasuries. While the macro outlook is especially uncertain at present, we find it hard to envisage a scenario in which... 22nd March 2023 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect equities in EMs to continue to struggle Even if the banking sector turmoil doesn’t grow into a broader economic crisis, we still think equities in emerging markets will struggle over the next couple of quarters in local-currency terms. 22nd March 2023 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Equities stuck between a rock and a hard place Although recent strains in the banking sector mean that the economic outlook is especially uncertain, in our view equities are unlikely to perform particularly well, regardless of how things play out. 22nd March 2023 · 4 mins read
India Chart Pack Vulnerabilities lurk in the banking sector Spill-overs from the turmoil in the global banking system to India have been limited so far, but the big unknown is whether difficulties will flare up at home. Bank problems can arise via multiple... 22nd March 2023 · 9 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Global turmoil hits Lat Am when it’s already down Strains in the global banking sector have flared up at a time when Latin America was in the midst of a period of economic weakness. Regional GDP fell in the final quarter of last year and surveys for... 22nd March 2023 · 12 mins read
Capital Daily Even if the worst is over for banks, the outlook remains bleak A risk-on mood has prevailed today amid easing concerns over the US banking system. That seems to reflect a view that intervention, perhaps including an extension of FDIC insurance to deposits above... 21st March 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Taking stock of the Swiss shotgun wedding Financial markets have greeted the second consecutive weekend bank rescue/resolution – this time in Switzerland – with cautious optimism. But there is still an enormous amount of uncertainty about... 20th March 2023 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Banking panic leaves currency markets strangely unmoved In a week dominated by headlines about bank failures and the risk of another financial crisis, resulting in extraordinary volatility in government bond markets as interest rate expectations have... 17th March 2023 · 11 mins read
Capital Daily Falls in yields and equities may have further to run Despite a better day for financial markets yesterday, confidence among investors still seems fragile. Although we do not expect markets to remain quite so choppy, we think some of the key trends of... 17th March 2023 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Banking situation appears to be stabilising, but risks remain Even if policymakers are successful at putting a firewall around the recent problems in the global banking system, some damage to the UK economy may already have been done. And while we think... 17th March 2023 · 10 mins read
