China Chart Pack A near-term fiscal boost Local governments have stepped up their borrowing since the start of the year. They issued RMB860bn in special bonds over the course of January and February, up from an average of RMB105bn per month... 28th February 2023 · 12 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the yield curve phoney war With the US yield curve more deeply inverted than at any time since the early 1980s, it is worth (again) considering what the implications for financial markets are. 27th February 2023 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap The dollar continues its slow and steady rise The US dollar looks set to end a third week higher against most major currencies amid mounting evidence that the US economy started the year on strong footing. In particular, hawkish FOMC minutes and... 24th February 2023 · 10 mins read
Capital Daily Markets and Russia’s invasion, one year on Despite first appearances, financial markets haven’t shrugged off the effects of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and we think the ramifications could continue to be important to investors. 24th February 2023 · 7 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Rationalising the relative rebound in US big-tech We think the recent outperformance of the US “big-tech” “super-sector” could continue, but not because of the “bargain hunting” that we think has caused it to occur despite higher real Treasury yields... 23rd February 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Bond market may already be braced for “higher for longer” Investors have ramped up their expectations for the near-term path of the Fed funds rate amid talk of “higher for longer”. But long-run expectations for the policy rate have already climbed... 23rd February 2023 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Chart Pack We expect the US dollar to continue to edge higher Stronger-than-expected data out of the US have pushed up US yields more than elsewhere and drove the greenback higher against most currencies for the first time since its cyclical peak in October of... 23rd February 2023 · 11 mins read
Global Markets Update East Asian equities may hold up despite plunging exports Falls in exports from Korea and Taiwan have weighed on corporate earnings in these economies, but even if that continues for a while we think their equities will hold up fairly well. 23rd February 2023 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf slowdown underway After a stellar performance for most of 2022, the Gulf economies are slowing. Primarily, that has reflected the impact of oil production cuts agreed with the rest of OPEC+ which is weighing on growth... 23rd February 2023 · 14 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Mixed signals from underlying inflation The January CPI data provided mixed signals about developments in underlying inflation. The CPI excluding food and energy and the CPI excluding the eight most volatile components each rose by just 0.1... 22nd February 2023 · 8 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack External vulnerabilities to ease as growth weakens The latest data suggest that current account deficits in the region’s major economies narrowed towards the end of last year, which is particularly good news for Colombia and Chile. Both were running... 22nd February 2023 · 15 mins read
Capital Daily EZ markets may keep struggling to shake off concerns in the US We doubt “risky” assets in the euro-zone will be resilient to the further weakness we foresee in their counterparts in the US. 22nd February 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack One year into the war in Ukraine The first year of the war in Ukraine has had an enormous impact on the country’s economy and left it highly dependent on financing from allies. Russia’s economy has contracted too, but it weathered... 22nd February 2023 · 15 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EMs and the war: one year on The war in Ukraine, which marks its one year anniversary on Friday, has had a profound impact on the emerging world. Ukraine’s economy has collapsed, while Russia’s has contracted too even though the... 22nd February 2023 · 8 mins read
Long Run Asset Allocation Outlook 2022’s sell-off unlikely to set the stage for strong returns The big sell-off in both equities and bonds that was a feature of 2022 has arguably created scope for them to fare a bit better in the coming years by reducing their valuations. Nonetheless, we don’t... 21st February 2023 · 20 mins read
Capital Daily Making sense of mixed signals on the global economy While not our base-case forecast, the recent resilience of service sectors and labour markets seem to have raised the chance of a “higher for longer” scenario for policy rates. That could be bad news... 21st February 2023 · 6 mins read
