Japan Chart Pack Post-booster bounce in the spring Services spending jumped to only 3% below its pre-virus level in Q4 2021 despite having begun the quarter on a weak footing with curfews still in place for bars and restaurants across many regions in... 21st February 2022 · 10 mins read
Asset Allocation Long-Term Outlook High inflation, tight monetary policy, valuations and returns Although the Fed is poised to step on the brakes to tackle the highest rate of inflation in four decades, we don’t expect the yields of US equities and Treasuries to rise to anywhere near their peaks... 18th February 2022 · 21 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap US dollar see-saws on Ukraine risk & FOMC minutes Although it has rebounded today, the US dollar lost a little ground against most major currencies over the week as a whole, as the FOMC minutes prompted a scaling back of market expectations for Fed... 18th February 2022 · 8 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack The upside looks limited for Russia’s stock market The threat of sanctions has weighed on Russia’s stock market recently, but even if tensions abated we wouldn’t expect it to make big gains over the next couple of years. 18th February 2022 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily We expect E-Z “peripheral” spreads to resume their rise While sovereign spreads in the euro-zone “periphery” have fallen back recently, we suspect that they will start rising again before long. 18th February 2022 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Colombia’s growth spurt, Brazil’s rally Q4 GDP figures out this week showed that Colombia’s surprisingly strong recovery has been fuelled by rapid consumer spending growth, but this is unlikely to last as the boost from the re-opening fades... 18th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Bonds & Equities Taking stock of Russia/Ukraine tensions & market implications With tensions between Russia and Ukraine continuing, the risk of a conflict with far-reaching economic consequences remains uncomfortably high. This Update considers what the impact on global... 18th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Revisiting EM FX debt risks With FX debt burdens relatively low in most major EMs, the risk of debt crises triggered by rising US interest rates and a stronger dollar looks limited. Vulnerabilities are generally limited to... 18th February 2022 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly LIC IPO unlikely to ignite privatisation drive Local media has been awash with commentary about the initial public offering (IPO) of Life Insurance Corporation (LIC) after the state-owned behemoth this week submitted its draft prospectus. From a... 18th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We think relative yields will continue to favour the US dollar While investors have now discounted a lot of policy rate hikes in the US over the next couple of years, we think they may still be underestimating how high the fed funds rate will go this tightening... 17th February 2022 · 6 mins read
US Chart Pack Better news on inflation is coming The further rise in CPI inflation to 7.5% in January and hawkish comments from Fed officials have seen markets rush to price in a series of aggressive interest rate hikes this year. But recent weeks... 17th February 2022 · 9 mins read
Global Markets Update The outlook for German and Swiss Government bonds We think that the gap between the yields of 10-year German and Swiss government bonds will re-emerge over the next couple of years as the ECB tightens policy more quickly than the SNB. In view of the... 17th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A closer look at Ukraine’s macro vulnerabilities Ukraine’s economy as a whole is in a better position to weather significant capital flight and sharp falls in the hryvnia than at any point in the past decade. But even so, there are key pockets of... 16th February 2022 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update The strength in EM commodity currencies may prove fleeting Despite their strong start to 2022, we think that emerging market commodity currencies will struggle over the next couple of years as commodity prices fall back from their current high levels. That... 16th February 2022 · 3 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack Monetary tightening may continue to limit risky assets’ gains Even if tensions between Russia and Ukraine abated, we wouldn’t expect risky assets to gain all that much over the rest of this year and next, mainly because we think ongoing monetary tightening would... 16th February 2022 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Assessing the outlook for German and Swiss government bonds We expect a gap between the yields of 10-year German and Swiss government bonds to re-emerge as policy support is withdrawn more quickly by the ECB than by the SNB. 15th February 2022 · 6 mins read
