Global Markets Update Fed tightening & the outlook for US corporate bonds Our baseline forecast envisages that US corporate bond spreads rise only slightly as the Fed raises interest rates over the next couple of years. But we think the risks to this forecast are skewed to... 21st January 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the stock market sell-off Although we think that there may be some further rotation away from “growth” stocks over the next few years, as Treasury yields rise, we doubt the S&P 500 will have an awful year. 21st January 2022 · 8 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Fed guidance could revive the rally in the US dollar The trade-weighted US dollar seems set to end the week a bit higher, reversing some of its recent decline. But the dollar strength has mostly been against G10 currencies; despite the fall in US... 21st January 2022 · 9 mins read
Asset Allocation Update We doubt US equities will underperform across the board We forecast that equities in other developed markets (DMs) will outperform US equities over the next couple of years. By contrast, we expect equities in many emerging markets (EMs) to underperform... 21st January 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Inflation falling but rates may rise to zero We expect consumption to rebound from the Omicron wave within a few weeks, lifting euro-zone GDP to its pre-pandemic level in the first half of the year. But GDP will remain below its pre-pandemic... 21st January 2022 · 30 mins read
FX Markets Outlook We expect the dollar bull market to continue Although the dollar’s rally has stalled over the past six weeks or so, and may tread water for a while longer, we think that it will ultimately appreciate a bit further this year and next. The key... 20th January 2022 · 21 mins read
Capital Daily We think the Turkish lira’s stability will prove short-lived For the first time in several months, the lira remained subdued following an interest rate announcement from Turkey’s central bank, perhaps as the decision to keep rates on hold was widely anticipated... 20th January 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Mounting headwinds to take the shine off the recovery We expect regional GDP growth to come in below expectations this year as high inflation erodes households’ real incomes and policy becomes more restrictive. Despite this view on the growth outlook, we... 20th January 2022 · 29 mins read
Capital Daily We think the sell-off in E-Z government bonds has further to run While the yield of 10-year Bunds has risen a long way recently, and is now above zero for the first time since before the onset of the pandemic, we think it will increase further still. We also expect... 19th January 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily China’s property sector, monetary policy, and exchange rate With China’s property sector – and economy more broadly – struggling, we think more PBOC rate cuts are on the way this year, which we expect to result in further falls in the country’s government bond... 18th January 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily More thoughts on developments under the hood of the NASDAQ Although the prices of a growing number of shares in the NASDAQ 100 have been floundering recently, we are still not convinced that this heralds an imminent collapse in the index. 17th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Riksbank to have to change tack The Riksbank has learnt from its past tendency to project rate hikes that never arrive. But the single repo rate rise by end-2024 that it currently projects is stretching the limits of plausibility in... 17th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Our outlook for fx-hedged returns in 2022 When it comes to developed markets (DMs), we suspect that fx-hedged returns will be significantly better than unhedged returns for US dollar-based investors in foreign-currency-denominated assets. 17th January 2022 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap We do not expect the recent dollar weakness to last Despite several events in the US this week which would usually point to a stronger dollar – the highest US inflation print since the early 1980s, hawkish comments from both Chair Powell and Vice Chair... 14th January 2022 · 9 mins read
Global Markets Update The implications of the Russia-Ukraine crisis The deadlocked end to talks between Russia, the US and NATO and subsequent hawkish noises from Russian officials have caused a risk premium to emerge on Russian asset prices and will keep the prospect... 14th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt that EM equities will continue to outperform While emerging market (EM) equities have performed better than developed market (DM) equities so far this year, we don’t think that this pattern is likely to continue. 14th January 2022 · 7 mins read
