China Chart Pack Surge in interbank rates a hawkish signal from PBOC Short-term funding costs for banks have risen sharply during the past couple of weeks. The 7-day depository repo rate (DR007), which has been flagged by the PBOC as a key benchmark and focus of... 29th January 2021 · 13 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Dec.) The small gain in new home sales in December continues the run of falling or weak sales seen since August of last year. That moderation in sales is set to persist in 2021, as worsening affordability... 28th January 2021 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update How big might the foreclosure wave be? We estimate a backlog of around 850,000 foreclosures will have built-up if the ban is extended until the end of September, similar to the peak seen during the financial crisis. However, not all those... 27th January 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Outlook Near-term pain, medium-term gain Rising unemployment and the withdrawal of the raft of policies that supported the housing market in 2020 means that the pandemic will finally take its toll this year. The end of the stamp duty holiday... 27th January 2021 · 23 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Nov.) House price growth continued to surge in November, with both Case-Shiller and FHFA reporting strong gains. At 11% y/y, the rise in the FHFA index is the highest since records began in 1992. But the... 26th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus RBNZ to hike rates next year We now expect the RBNZ to tighten monetary policy in the years ahead as GDP growth, the labour market and inflation will be much stronger than the Bank has anticipated. We expect asset purchases to be... 26th January 2021 · 18 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Hospitality re-openings key to the outlook this year Leisure and hospitality re-openings were behind the strongest job growth in the Autumn, although national data for December suggest that this could be reversed on the back of renewed lockdowns. With... 22nd January 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Dec.) Existing home sales recorded a marginal gain in December but are set to fall back over 2021. Mortgage rates will not decline any further and rising house prices have already reversed the boost to... 22nd January 2021 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Dec.) Single-family starts rebounded in December, recording their largest month-on-month gain since June. While production constraints will continue to weigh on starts, we are relatively upbeat about the... 21st January 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Credit Conditions Survey (Q4 2020) Very strong demand allowed banks to maintain tight lending standards in Q4 2020 while still increasing mortgage lending volumes. Of course, buyer demand is likely to drop sharply when the stamp duty... 21st January 2021 · 3 mins read
China Economic Outlook A year of two halves China’s economy will continue to beat most expectations in the near term, as households spend more freely. But momentum will soften during the second half of the year as props from stimulus and... 21st January 2021 · 22 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Falling virus cases an upside risk this quarter Our forecast for a 1.5% q/q fall in consumption in Q1 rests on the assumption that some businesses in virus hotspots will be forced to close in order to contain Japan’s most severe wave of the... 20th January 2021 · 10 mins read
US Economic Outlook Vaccines and stimulus to boost recovery With additional large-scale fiscal stimulus likely to offset the near-term drag on activity stemming from the surge in COVID-19 cases – and the vaccination effort likely to reach critical mass by mid... 19th January 2021 · 24 mins read
UK Housing Market Update New starts likely to remain weak as transactions slump Completions of new homes have made a full recovery from their collapse in Q2 2020, but builders appear more hesitant to start new projects. Given we expect the housing market to endure a rough patch... 18th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Surge in growth will allow central banks to step back The recovery in GDP and employment in both Australia and New Zealand is set to continue surprising to the upside. As such, we expect the RBA to stop its QE programme in April. Meanwhile, we estimate... 18th January 2021 · 24 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Investors in Europe moving down the risk curve Although rental growth prospects for prime property are weak compared to recent years, the outlook is better than for secondary property. As such, we think that investors will continue to focus on... 18th January 2021 · 3 mins read
