UK Data Response Mortgage Lending (Mar.) The post-stamp duty holiday downturn in mortgage approvals for new house purchase may have come to an end in March. But we are doubtful that mortgage lending will now mount a sustained recovery. 2nd May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Land Registry Repeat Sales Index (Mar.) March’s drop was not enough to prevent average house prices in England and Wales from recording a modest rise during the first quarter. But with the economy seemingly now back in recession and... 1st May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response BBA Mortgage Lending (Mar.) March’s drop in mortgage approvals gives further weight to the idea that housing demand at the turn of the year was artificially boosted by the stamp duty holiday. If extended, March’s rise in... 26th April 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Renewed recession underscores likelihood of housing downturn Every recession in the UK of the past half century has been accompanied by real house price falls. But unlike many episodes in the past, with inflation low by historical standards, there is a good... 25th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller Prices & New Home Sales (Feb/Mar) The small rise in the Case-Shiller index in February supports our view that house prices are either very close to, or already through, their trough. But with new home sales still very subdued in March... 24th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Mar.) March’s decline in existing home sales probably reflects the normal month by month volatility rather than renewed underlying weakness. The increase in households’ confidence in the outlook for the... 19th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Mar.) The UK has now experienced about four years of below-average productivity growth. We remain sceptical that this means that productivity growth has been permanently damaged. So we still think that a... 17th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Lumber prices don’t undermine case for construction recovery The lack of a significant rise in lumber prices does not suggest that the nascent improvement in housing starts will soon fizzle out. The volume of lumber being transported by railroad has a much... 13th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Borrowers making larger loan applications The $20,000 increase in the average loan size that mortgage applicants are seeking from lenders over the past three months may be an early sign that buyer confidence is improving. This should provide... 11th April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Why Brazil's property boom looks like a bubble There are several reasons why we would have expected to have seen a sharp rise in Brazilian house prices over the past five years. But even so the sheer scale of the recent jump in prices is difficult... 11th April 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook Another difficult year for the housing market Falling economic output, rising unemployment and fragile consumer confidence will all do their bit to undermine house prices this year. But while housing is still overvalued, low interest rates and... 11th April 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Housing Market Survey (Mar.) Surveyors are reporting that supply and demand are in balance and that the pace of house price falls is moderating. Yet once the temporary boost to housing activity from the stamp duty holiday fades... 10th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Are mortgage lending standards easing? There’s no doubt that mortgage lending standards remain tight. But there are some tentative signs that banks might be becoming a bit more willing to lend. This is a crucial development that will... 5th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Feb.) Coming hot on the heels of the slightly more encouraging mortgage applications numbers released this morning, the small rise in the CoreLogic measure of house prices in February is another sign that... 4th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Mar.) It’s too early to conclude that March’s increase in mortgage applications for home purchase is the start of an upward trend. But the sharp rise in average loan size certainly seems consistent with an... 4th April 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Halifax House Prices (Mar.) The sharp rise in the Halifax house price index in March simply reverses the dip seen since last July. Therefore, it does little to alter the picture of a housing market that remains very weak. 4th April 2012 · 1 min read
