UK Housing Market Update Why isn’t tenant demand stronger? In contrast to the first ‘dip’, strong increases in rents are currently constraining the rise in tenant demand typically seen during recessions. In turn, this is due to a relatively low supply of new... 30th August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Jul) As expected and in line with BBA data for July, mortgage approvals rebounded slightly from June’s 18-month low, when lending was constrained by special factors. But the poor economic outlook argues... 30th August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Land Registry Repeat Sales Index (July) Once again, strong price rises in London drove July’s rise in national average house prices. But with prices in the North continuing to fall, the North/South divide is growing ever wider. 29th August 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Can the economy recover without a rebound in property? When the global financial crisis hit, a surge in real estate investment helped China’s economy escape the slump. The government in Beijing is trying to engineer a recovery from the current downturn... 29th August 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Q2) The moderation in the pace of economic growth does not appear to have had a significant detrimental impact on the recovery in US house prices. At the end of the second quarter, prices on the National... 28th August 2012 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank of Canada close to dropping hawkish bias The Bank of Canada's policy statement next week is likely to retain its hawkish bias about the need to raise interest rates. Given the faltering global economy and stalling domestic housing market... 28th August 2012 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Weak start to Q3 The Capital Economics China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that the economy slowed in July after steadying at the end of Q2. A further deterioration in exports and real estate construction has... 27th August 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Jul.) July’s rise in new home sales was clearly welcome news. And it does little to dissuade us from the view that the housing market has shifted from being a clear drag on the wider economy to offering... 23rd August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BBA Mortgage Lending (Jul.) As expected, June’s unexpectedly large drop in mortgage approvals was partially reversed in July. But the rise was small, and these figures continue to highlight that tight credit conditions are... 23rd August 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Jul. 12) For now, our view that the recent dip in existing home sales was not the start of a weaker trend seems to be on track. But the combination of a subdued outlook for US economic growth and tight... 22nd August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Stimulating house building – no quick fixes The current subdued level of house building is primarily the result of a lack of demand. So if the rumours are right, and new policies to stimulate a sharp rise in house building are announced soon... 21st August 2012 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Property market rebound tests policymakers Market sentiment about China’s property policy has executed an abrupt U-turn. Early this year, speculation was mounting that the government would loosen its controls on the sector in response to the... 21st August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly GDP revision won’t change big picture Last week brought yet more evidence that the economy did not do quite as badly in the second quarter as the preliminary GDP figures showed. That said, we have said before that only a massive revision... 20th August 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Rising interest rate expectations misplaced Market expectations of higher interest rates over the next 12 months look misplaced. The global economic outlook has deteriorated, with much of Europe in recession and the US economy facing a fiscal... 17th August 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Uptick in incoming data not enough to sway the Fed Since the Fed signalled at the last FOMC meeting three weeks ago that it was poised to act, the incoming economic data have, somewhat ironically, suddenly started to improve. Despite the recent uptick... 17th August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Are more forced part-time workers a risk for arrears? Although it is impossible to be sure, the trend towards ever greater numbers of people working part-time out of necessity rather than choice may have halted the downward trend in mortgage arrears. At... 17th August 2012 · 1 min read
