Canada Economics Update Housing investment cycle may have peaked The surge in housing starts, driven entirely by hi-rise condominium construction despite already high inventory, is now glaring evidence of overbuilding. Anecdotal evidence, meanwhile, points to... 10th August 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Delinquencies (Q2 12) The sharp slowdown in jobs growth seems to have fed through rapidly to the mortgage delinquency rate, which rose for the first time in a year in the second quarter. There was better news on the... 9th August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Arrears and Possessions (Q2) Any adverse effects from the deepening recession appear to have been more than offset by lender forbearance, allowing the level of mortgage arrears to hold steady and fewer homes to be possessed in... 9th August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response CML Buy-To-Let Lending (Q2) Lending to the Buy-to-Let sector was rather stronger than for the mainstream market in the second quarter of this year. That seems consistent with reports that, although the strength of tenant demand... 9th August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Why is remortgaging so weak? While tight credit conditions are keeping all housing market activity subdued, the narrowing of the spread between Standard Variable Rates (SVRs) and the rates available for new loans helps explain... 8th August 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Jun.) CoreLogic’s measure of house prices posted another strong gain in June. But unlike in recent months, the latest rise was marginally weaker than we would expect in a typical June, meaning that... 7th August 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed will want to satisfy surging mortgage demand The surge in demand for residential mortgages reported by the Fed’s latest Senior Loan Officer Survey could further encourage the FOMC to launch QE3, and perhaps some kind of Funding for Lending... 7th August 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Don’t fret about June’s weak sales figures Home sales fell by 5.6% m/m in June, the largest monthly decline for 16 months. But this is unlikely to signal that the recovery in housing demand has run out of steam already. For one, pending home... 6th August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (July) Mixed messages in the housing market over the past few months are slowly giving way to evidence of a downwards trend. With forward-looking indicators also weak and if anything softening, house prices... 6th August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Confidence and credit remain in short supply The majority of the data over the past month support our view that the UK housing market will continue to experience a gradual correction over the next few years. The Funding for Lending scheme may go... 2nd August 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jul.) The latest mortgage applications data provide further evidence that record low mortgage rates are doing little to boost demand among mortgage-dependent buyers. Meanwhile, the FHFA has reaffirmed its... 1st August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (July 12) A further month of house price falls provides more evidence that the market maybe shifting from a flat to a downwards trend. Although a clear picture of widespread house prices declines is yet to... 1st August 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (May) The fourth successive rise in the Case-Shiller measure of seasonally-adjusted house prices means that prices are experiencing more than just their usual seasonal lift. Moreover, tight supply... 31st July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (May) The modest 0.1% m/m increase in Canada's monthly GDP in May supports our existing estimate that the economy expanded at a disappointing 1.7% annualised pace in the second quarter. That would mark the... 31st July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (June) Even allowing for the potentially negative impact of the Jubilee Holiday and the bad weather, June’s mortgage lending data were undeniably weak. Unfortunately, the poor economic backdrop argues that a... 30th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Homeownership & Vacancy Rates (Q2 12) The very modest increase in the homeownership rate in Q2 does not persuade us to alter our view that the share of the population who own their home will fall further over the next couple of years... 27th July 2012 · 1 min read
