US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Jul.) July’s rise in new home sales was clearly welcome news. And it does little to dissuade us from the view that the housing market has shifted from being a clear drag on the wider economy to offering... 23rd August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BBA Mortgage Lending (Jul.) As expected, June’s unexpectedly large drop in mortgage approvals was partially reversed in July. But the rise was small, and these figures continue to highlight that tight credit conditions are... 23rd August 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Jul. 12) For now, our view that the recent dip in existing home sales was not the start of a weaker trend seems to be on track. But the combination of a subdued outlook for US economic growth and tight... 22nd August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Stimulating house building – no quick fixes The current subdued level of house building is primarily the result of a lack of demand. So if the rumours are right, and new policies to stimulate a sharp rise in house building are announced soon... 21st August 2012 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Property market rebound tests policymakers Market sentiment about China’s property policy has executed an abrupt U-turn. Early this year, speculation was mounting that the government would loosen its controls on the sector in response to the... 21st August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly GDP revision won’t change big picture Last week brought yet more evidence that the economy did not do quite as badly in the second quarter as the preliminary GDP figures showed. That said, we have said before that only a massive revision... 20th August 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Rising interest rate expectations misplaced Market expectations of higher interest rates over the next 12 months look misplaced. The global economic outlook has deteriorated, with much of Europe in recession and the US economy facing a fiscal... 17th August 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Uptick in incoming data not enough to sway the Fed Since the Fed signalled at the last FOMC meeting three weeks ago that it was poised to act, the incoming economic data have, somewhat ironically, suddenly started to improve. Despite the recent uptick... 17th August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Are more forced part-time workers a risk for arrears? Although it is impossible to be sure, the trend towards ever greater numbers of people working part-time out of necessity rather than choice may have halted the downward trend in mortgage arrears. At... 17th August 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Land values poised to recover The recent rise in residential land values is unlikely to be a one-off. Admittedly, with the level of new home sales still low and house prices gains to remain fairly modest, the pace of the initial... 16th August 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jul.) Housing starts fell slightly in July, but the forward-looking indicators rose once again. The upshot is that homebuilding will continue to support the wider economic recovery. 16th August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Cities & Regions Data Response The ONS data confirm reports from other sources that back in June, the London housing market remained strong. However we are less confident about some of the apparent strength reported for some other... 14th August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Housing Market Survey (Jul.) Activity in the housing market declined again in July, with a particularly large fall in newly agreed sales. Although demand and supply remain fairly well balanced, surveyors continue to expect... 14th August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Lettings Survey (Jul.) Tenant demand growth continued to soften over the second quarter of 2012, but given a slight drop in letting instructions surveyors still expect rents to grow modestly. Very weak demand in London may... 10th August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Producer Prices (Jun.) & Construction Output (Q2) Although July’s producer prices figures disclosed the first rise in input price inflation since February, we doubt that this is a sign of an emerging consumer price inflation threat. Indeed, the... 10th August 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Housing investment cycle may have peaked The surge in housing starts, driven entirely by hi-rise condominium construction despite already high inventory, is now glaring evidence of overbuilding. Anecdotal evidence, meanwhile, points to... 10th August 2012 · 1 min read
