US Housing Market Update NAHB index overdoing the homebuilding recovery The homebuilding sector is recovering and we expect housing starts to post a decent year-on-year gain both this year and next. Nevertheless, a surge in starts on the scale implied by the NAHB... 21st September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update How will we know if the Funding for Lending Scheme is working? It is far too early to make a robust assessment of the impact of the Funding for Lending Scheme. But the spreads over wholesale funding costs that lenders charge on mortgages will be a key indicator... 21st September 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Housing correction only just beginning Canada's already lacklustre rate of economic growth is only going to slow further as the housing correction intensifies. Home sales are now falling sharply and it is only a matter of time before... 20th September 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Housing correction begins in earnest The decade-long run-up in home prices, which has seen prices rise in some cities by over 150%, is now going into reverse, with national home prices falling in August for the first time in more than... 19th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts & Existing Home Sales (Aug.) Consistent with our view that the housing market is experiencing a sustainable recovery, today’s data releases showed a further improvement in housing activity. 19th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Stamp duty – What impact has the 7% rate had? Early indications are that the introduction of a 7% stamp duty rate on property valued at £2m or more has had no detrimental impact on activity in this market segment. Indeed for this part of the... 19th September 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Housing bubble bursting? The recent slump in home sales suggests that a housing correction is underway. Assuming that sales continue to trend lower over the remainder of this year, then the typical lag relationship between... 17th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update How positive is QE3 for housing? Further MBS purchases by the Fed won’t engineer the same drop in mortgage interest rates that earlier rounds did, and with mortgage-dependent buyers playing a relatively marginal role in the housing... 14th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Where next for the new-build premium? The new-build premium tends to move inversely to house prices, due to housebuilders’ pricing strategy and changes in affordability. Given that house prices are likely to drift lower over the next... 13th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update How concerning is the high contract cancellation rate? It’s obviously not good that 15% or more of all contracted home sales aren’t making it through to closing. But to the extent that the increase in the cancellation rate reflects would-be buyers’ desire... 13th September 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack High household debt difficult to hurdle Households have been running a financial deficit for over a decade, a significant departure from their normal role as net savers, resulting in a massive increase in household debt. This trend has... 12th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Land values begin to rise The combination of rising sales volumes and a dwindling inventory of homes for sale saw house prices rise again in the latest data. Depending on which of the major house price indices we look at... 12th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response FSA Mortgage Lending Statistics (Q2) Mortgage arrears continued to decline in Q2, and there is some tentative evidence that high LTV lending is starting to recover. But with mortgage rates still edging higher, tight credit conditions... 11th September 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Hong Kong property still heading for a crash The Hong Kong government has introduced a number of measures to improve housing affordability. We don’t believe these measures will have their intended effect, and that in the short-term property... 11th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Housing Market Survey (Aug.) The main survey balances from the RICS were broadly unchanged in August. Activity remains very depressed, and prices are continuing to drift lower. But surveyors are still hopeful that sales will rise... 11th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Is past exuberance still holding back housebuilding? Today’s announcement of a raft of new policy measures designed to boost housebuilding and revitalise the economy are a welcome development. But, over-optimistic expectations during the boom have left... 6th September 2012 · 1 min read
