Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Deflation to trump Riksbank’s household debt concerns The Riksbank’s report on household indebtedness underscores the magnitude of the problem and the need for it to be addressed. But we continue to think that the Bank will cut interest rates as... 7th May 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Mar.) House price gains have held steady at 11%-12% y/y for a year now. But the tight supply conditions which have driven these gains are now loosening, pointing to a moderation in price rises before too... 6th May 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed's survey points to strong growth in business loans The Fed's latest Senior Loan Officer Survey illustrates the remarkable divergence between bank loans to businesses, which have increased by nearly 9% over the past year, and bank residential mortgages... 5th May 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Housing bears shouldn't scare Goldilocks away Last week’s data provided further evidence that the UK economy is currently enjoying a ‘Goldilocks’ recovery. Admittedly, there are concerns that an overheating housing market could bring the bears... 5th May 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Labour’s rent controls – more bark than bite As they stand, the proposals by the Labour party to introduce some form of rent control are pretty innocuous. More concerning is the precedent they may set for more drastic intervention in the future... 2nd May 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report on Manuf. (Apr.) & Mortgage Approvals (Mar.) The latest data on the manufacturing sector and household borrowing have provided some further encouraging evidence of a rebalancing of the UK’s economic recovery away from excessive dependence on... 1st May 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Apr 14.) & Mortgage Lending (Mar 14.) The Nationwide reported a robust rise in house prices in April, pushing the annual rate into double-digits for the first time in almost four years. But mortgage approvals fell again in March, which... 1st May 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Land Registry Repeat Sales Index (Mar.14) The Land Registry reported a surprise fall in house prices in March. That provides further evidence that, while the housing market recovery will continue, there is little sign it is turning into a... 30th April 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Homeownership & Vacancy Rates & Case-Shiller (Q1/Feb. 14) The increase in the share of households renting to a 19-year high in Q1, and the low supply of homes entering the rental market, look like boons for both rental value growth and multi-family... 29th April 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Can the recovery continue without housing? The apparent crumbling in the housing recovery has, at least temporarily, removed a valuable support to GDP growth. But the wider economic recovery will carry on regardless and it may not be long... 28th April 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response BBA Mortgage Lending (Mar.14) The number of mortgages approved by the major banks dropped for the second consecutive month in March. The data therefore provide further evidence that the housing market recovery may be coming off... 25th April 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Mar 14.) The plunge in new home sales in March raises difficult questions about the sustainability of the housing recovery. But with other parts of the economy starting to shrug off the winter malaise, we are... 23rd April 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Mar.14) The latest small decline in existing home sales cannot easily be passed off as weather-related weakness, as those regions which suffered most from the severe weather saw sales bounce back in March... 22nd April 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Are longer mortgage terms supporting higher house prices? In 2012, almost 30% of new mortgages were advanced with a term of 30 years or longer. By lowering monthly payments, that will have allowed lenders to increase loan-to-income ratios, which can then... 17th April 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Mar 14.) The below-expectations increase in housing starts in March, which made up for only one-fifth of earlier weather-related falls, suggests that the shortage of labour and lots is constraining the... 16th April 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook Boom in London house prices unlikely to spread to the rest of the country House prices are now rising across the country but, London aside, they are not in boom territory. And with some early indications that demand is at least no longer accelerating, we expect prices to... 15th April 2014 · 1 min read
