Canada Economics Update Slowdown in housing to hit new motor vehicle sales Our fear is that the impressive recovery in new motor vehicle sales since the recession ended, which was driven principally by a surge in light truck sales, will fade as the housing boom falters... 5th June 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Housing & energy still constraints on Norwegian growth Although we have nudged up our forecasts in light of recent data, Norway’s economy is still set to expand by less than the Norges Bank expects. This may prompt it to delay raising rates until 2016. 5th June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (May 14) The very large rise in house prices reported by the Halifax in May comes after two months of declines, and underlying measures of growth are stable. Even so, expectations of house price gains are... 5th June 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Local government dependence on property exaggerated The ongoing slowdown in the property sector is hitting land sales, which some have suggested has worrying implications for local government finances. We think the risks are being exaggerated and that... 5th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (May 14) The fall in mortgage applications for home purchase over the past week left them languishing at a six-week low. But with housing still undervalued, the economy gathering momentum and mortgage interest... 4th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Apr. 14) CoreLogic house price data for April show that the annual pace of house price gains moderated for the second consecutive month. While the process still has some way to go, the data add to the evidence... 3rd June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (May 14) The Nationwide reported a 0.7% m/m rise in house prices in May. This reflects the fact that, despite the recent dip in mortgage approvals, housing demand is still outpacing the supply of homes on the... 3rd June 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus What next for the US housing market? The US housing market will recover from its current soft patch to post strong gains in home sales and housing starts over the next couple of years. By contrast house price growth will slow, but this... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Apr.14) According to the Bank of England mortgage approvals fell again in April, and are now 17% below their peak at the start of the year. Some of the decline is likely to reverse once the disruption caused... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report on Manuf. (May) & Mortgage Approvals (Apr.) The latest data on the manufacturing sector and household borrowing has provided more encouraging evidence that the economic recovery is shifting away from its excessive dependence on housing and... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Land Registry Repeat Sales Index (Apr.) The Land Registry figures show that prices in London continue to boom, with prices up £17,645 during April alone. While the Help to Buy mortgage guarantee scheme is not directly responsible for the... 30th May 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Recovery built on solid foundations Although the revival in housing market activity may lose some pace as a result of new regulations and rising mortgage rates, we doubt that this will derail the recovery in consumer spending. 29th May 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Shale will drive local housing market outperformance North Dakota owes its position as the strongest performing housing market in the US to the scale of shale oil and gas production in the State. Housing markets in a number of the other States sharing... 28th May 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller Home Prices (Q1 14) The first quarter Case-Shiller figures provide further evidence that the slowdown in the pace of house price gains that we have been expecting is now in train. It’s not implausible that the year-on... 27th May 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response BBA Mortgage Lending (Apr. 14) The British Bankers’ Association reported that mortgage approvals dropped once again in April, and are now around 13% down on their peak in January. As such the data do little to support the idea of a... 27th May 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Apr. 14) In April, new home sales reversed most of the previous month’s decline to stand just4% below the high seen in October last year. Alongside yesterday’s modest rise inexisting home sales, the data... 23rd May 2014 · 1 min read
