US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (May) The strong rise in existing home sales in May probably reflects the milder weather and the 35 basis point decline in 30-year mortgage interest rates so far in 2014. We expect the improvement in home... 23rd June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q2) The latest Credit Conditions survey suggests that lending activity in both the residential and commercial property sectors remains pretty well controlled. Admittedly, borrower demand is improving... 23rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Household financial leverage still dangerously high While Canadian policymakers will be somewhat relieved to learn that household financial leverage hasn't risen any higher this year, it hasn't fallen either, meaning that heavily indebted households... 19th June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Are the housing market's warning lights flashing? The recent drop in mortgage approvals does not negate the need for the FPC to test its new macro-prudential powers . For one thing, we expect the drop in lending to be temporary. In addition, the re... 18th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (May) The fall in housing starts in May is not a surprise given the size of the gain the month before, although the size of the decline was bigger than we or the consensus expected. Looking ahead, there are... 17th June 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing affordability a major problem While the Canadian government has been tightening its macro-prudential housing rules over the past five years, housing valuations have continued to inflate and household financial leverage has climbed... 16th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Is mortgage lending at a turning point? Tentative signs that rising house prices are increasing the ability of many households to meet minimum deposit criteria increase the chances that the most recent jump in mortgage applications might... 13th June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Chancellor gives the Financial Policy Committee more powers While not groundbreaking, the new powers granted to the FPC strengthens their hand and could be a sign that greater regulation of the buy-to-let market is around the corner. That said, Carney’s hint... 13th June 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Industrial output, fixed investment and retail sales (May.) Today's output and spending data from China suggest that policymakers are being reasonably successful so far at fine-tuning policy in order to stabilise growth. We suspect that downward pressures from... 13th June 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (May) The latest Teranet house price data provide some early evidence that the slowdown in house price inflation continued in May. The past decline in existing home sales and the steady rise in the number... 12th June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (May 14) The RICS survey provides further evidence that the surge in housing demand seen over the past year is losing momentum. But the housing market is not grinding to a halt, and the FPC will be mindful... 12th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Sales and starts show fresh signs of life The most recent data have provided support for our view that the sharp drop in sales and starts seen over the past few months would prove temporary. New and existing home sales, as well as housing... 11th June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lenders and Administrators statistics (Q1 14) The Help to Buy mortgage guarantee scheme has helped to almost double the share of mortgages advanced with a deposit of under 10%. And despite the gradual introduction of the MMR, the share of... 10th June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Housing demand cools but prices still under upwards pressure The surge in pent up housing demand released over the past year looks to be losing steam, and the disruption caused by the MMR has brought a, probably temporary, halt to the growth in mortgage lending... 5th June 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Slowdown in housing to hit new motor vehicle sales Our fear is that the impressive recovery in new motor vehicle sales since the recession ended, which was driven principally by a surge in light truck sales, will fade as the housing boom falters... 5th June 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Housing & energy still constraints on Norwegian growth Although we have nudged up our forecasts in light of recent data, Norway’s economy is still set to expand by less than the Norges Bank expects. This may prompt it to delay raising rates until 2016. 5th June 2014 · 1 min read
