UK Housing Market Update Is the ratio of mortgage debt to income really declining? The authorities are taking comfort from the fall in mortgage debt as a share of disposable income in recent years. But that primarily reflects a rise in benefit payments and net interest income, as... 18th October 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Focus Assessing two key risks to the Swiss economy We think that the continued strength of the franc will weigh heavily on Switzerland’s exports for some time yet. But fears of overheating in the property market seem overdone, implying that a brighter... 17th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Is homebuilder confidence set for a weaker period? Homebuilder confidence may be on the verge of a weaker period. The good news is that previous rapid run-ups and subsequent moderations in homebuilder confidence have dampened, but not derailed... 16th October 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response House Prices & Existing Home Sales (Sep.) The uptick in house price inflation, to 2.7% in September from 2.3% in August, is consistent with the reported decline in the supply of housing inventory. But with home sales being pulled forward in... 15th October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook House prices set for modest gains thanks to Government interventions With much fanfare, the Government has brought forward by three months the launch of the controversial Help to Buy mortgage guarantee scheme. We remain unconvinced that it will generate a large number... 15th October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will 'Help to Buy' be a block to rebalancing? The Government's Help to Buy (HTB) Scheme has been criticised for stoking a potential house price bubble and exposing the taxpayer to unwarranted risks. A more overlooked danger arises from the... 15th October 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly New housing activity spread signalling slowdown ahead The historically high number of housing units under construction justifies the current strength of construction employment. But the negative spread between housing starts and completions signals that... 14th October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Help to Buy mortgage guarantees – is it time to reassess? We have been more sceptical than most that the Help to Buy mortgage guarantee will spark a new house price boom. Although the complexity of the scheme makes it difficult to draw firm conclusions... 9th October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Sep. 13) The RICS reported another strong rise in new buyer enquires in September, even before today’s launch of the Help to Buy mortgage guarantee. But with interest rates on the first guaranteed mortgage... 8th October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Tight housing market conditions push up prices Fears that another house price boom is on the way risk becoming self-fulfilling, as buyers rush into the market and sellers stay away in anticipation of future price gains. But demand still faces... 3rd October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Sep. 13) House prices rose further in September according to the Halifax, driven up by a release of some pent-up housing demand. The mortgage guarantee aspect of Help to Buy may push prices up further, but we... 3rd October 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Sep.) Mortgage applications for home purchase rose in September, the first gain in three months. This may be an early sign that borrowers are starting to adjust to the higher interest rate environment. 2nd October 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Aug. 13) CoreLogic house prices for August paint a picture of a market that is losing some steam. Even so, there is little sign that higher mortgage interest rates are threatening to derail the housing... 1st October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Aug. 13) Another steady rise in mortgage approvals indicates a housing market that is gradually recovering. But the growth in lending is likely to remain modest, despite attempts by the Government to... 30th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Land Registry Repeat Sales Index (Aug. 13) The Land Registry house price index recorded a surprisingly weak 0.1% monthly rise in August, setting it apart from other, stronger measures. But it confirmed that London, where house price inflation... 27th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Sep. 13) With conditions in the housing market very tight, September saw another strong rise in prices of 0.9%. But the good news is that, in response to growing concerns about the pace of these gains, the... 27th September 2013 · 1 min read
