US Housing Market Outlook House price inflation will cool The rising inventory of homes for sale and the hit to housing demand from the severe winter weather are feeding through to slower house price inflation. Although home sales will now recover, a further... 30th June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (May 14) The drop in mortgage market activity seen since the turn of the year was extended into May. However, we think that approvals are unlikely to drop much further. Instead, we expect them to rise steadily... 30th June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Has the FPC done enough? None of the measures announced by the Financial Policy Committee (FPC) last week seem likely to sap the recovery in house prices of its current momentum or prevent the overall level of household debt... 30th June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Land Registry Repeat Sales Index (May 14) The Land Registry repeat sales index suggests that house price inflation may be levelling off in response to the sizeable drop in mortgage approvals seen since January. But it is too soon to be... 27th June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update FPC takes (limited) action to cool the housing market The FPC has taken action to rein in a possible future house price boom, but appears entirely relaxed about developments to date. Time will tell, but we think that is rather short-sighted. 26th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller Prices & New Home Sales (Apr/May) The sharp slowdown in house price inflation in April is unlikely to be a one-off. House price gains will slow further now that housing supply conditions are loosening. 24th June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response BBA Mortgage Lending (May 14) The recent run of falling mortgage approvals for house purchase looks to be coming to an end, with the BBA reporting approvals were more or less unchanged in May. But with the FPC expected to act to... 24th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (May) The strong rise in existing home sales in May probably reflects the milder weather and the 35 basis point decline in 30-year mortgage interest rates so far in 2014. We expect the improvement in home... 23rd June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q2) The latest Credit Conditions survey suggests that lending activity in both the residential and commercial property sectors remains pretty well controlled. Admittedly, borrower demand is improving... 23rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Household financial leverage still dangerously high While Canadian policymakers will be somewhat relieved to learn that household financial leverage hasn't risen any higher this year, it hasn't fallen either, meaning that heavily indebted households... 19th June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Are the housing market's warning lights flashing? The recent drop in mortgage approvals does not negate the need for the FPC to test its new macro-prudential powers . For one thing, we expect the drop in lending to be temporary. In addition, the re... 18th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (May) The fall in housing starts in May is not a surprise given the size of the gain the month before, although the size of the decline was bigger than we or the consensus expected. Looking ahead, there are... 17th June 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing affordability a major problem While the Canadian government has been tightening its macro-prudential housing rules over the past five years, housing valuations have continued to inflate and household financial leverage has climbed... 16th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Is mortgage lending at a turning point? Tentative signs that rising house prices are increasing the ability of many households to meet minimum deposit criteria increase the chances that the most recent jump in mortgage applications might... 13th June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Chancellor gives the Financial Policy Committee more powers While not groundbreaking, the new powers granted to the FPC strengthens their hand and could be a sign that greater regulation of the buy-to-let market is around the corner. That said, Carney’s hint... 13th June 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Industrial output, fixed investment and retail sales (May.) Today's output and spending data from China suggest that policymakers are being reasonably successful so far at fine-tuning policy in order to stabilise growth. We suspect that downward pressures from... 13th June 2014 · 1 min read
