US Housing Market Rapid Response

US New Home Sales (Feb. 2024)

February’s tiny drop in new home sales cut short what appeared to be the beginning of a recovery in recent months. Even though the drop was extremely small, it still potentially casts some doubt over...

25th March 2024 · 2 mins read

US Commercial Property Outlook

A tough year in store, but retail returns will be positive

This year is being flagged by many as the year the recovery starts, but there is still a substantial amount of pain (and value falls) to come. We think activity will gradually pick up in H2, but...

22nd March 2024 · 22 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Outlook

Further value falls to come, but should reach trough in H2

Further near-term yield rises will push property values lower in the coming quarters, but better valuations, falling interest rates and improving economic activity suggest a trough should be reached...

21st March 2024 · 31 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

US Existing Home Sales (Feb. 2024)

Existing home sales rose in February which we think largely reflects the sharp fall in mortgage rates at the end of last year. But borrowing costs have been rising so far in 2024, which in the near...

21st March 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Commercial Property Chart Pack

UK Commercial Property Chart Pack (Mar. 24)

All-property total returns have turned the corner, with a month-on-month rise in January and February. Rental growth is set to continue to ease, but yields are close to a peak and that will remove the...

19th March 2024 · 1 min read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

US Housing Starts (Feb. 2024)

The strong rebound in housing starts last month confirmed January’s slump was a weather-related blip. Although we expected starts to bounce back, February’s data were even stronger than we had...

19th March 2024 · 2 mins read

US Housing Market Update

Southern house price outperformance to last

The national average house price has risen by nearly 50% since the start of the pandemic, but that masks a lot of regional variation. The rise in house prices in southern metros has been even larger...

18th March 2024 · 4 mins read

UK Housing Market Outlook

Fall in mortgage rates will allow market to recover

A slight rise in mortgage rates since the start of the year is likely to mean house prices stall in the near term. But our forecast that Bank Rate will be cut faster than most expect, to 3.00% by the...

15th March 2024 · 18 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Rents rising but a retail renaissance in 2024 is unlikely

The revival of prime retail rental growth in 2023 ended a three-year rental decline for the sector. This likely marks the end of retail’s rental woes and we have nudged up our prime rent forecast for...

14th March 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

RICS Residential Market Survey (Feb. 24)

The February RICS Residential Market Survey revealed a jump in the supply of homes for sale which, paired with a slight rise in mortgage rates, means that house price gains are likely to stall in the...

14th March 2024 · 3 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Nashville, Jacksonville and Austin top for remote workers

Our updated remote worker preference scores again highlight Nashville as the most attractive metro for remote workers, while San Jose is the least attractive. The winners continue to be predominantly...

13th March 2024 · 5 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

Online share developments not all bad news

The online share of retail sales is still above its pre-pandemic trend, but a closer look suggests that is perhaps not as bad for the retail sector as it looks. For example, the share of online...

13th March 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Peak in yields is near, but little scope for compression

Improved valuations suggest that the price correction in prime property is almost done. However, with little scope for bond yields in continental Europe to fall from here and property-to-bond yield...

13th March 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

Rental market continues to contract

The more granular detail of mortgage lending in Q4 published by the Bank of England this morning added to the evidence that the Buy-to-Let (BTL) sector is contracting. Meanwhile arrears increased, but...

12th March 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

IPF Consensus Forecasts (Mar. 24.)

The latest IPF Consensus Survey shows that forecasters have upwardly revised their 2024 expectations, which are now more in line with our view. Stronger rental growth help drive that improvement and...

8th March 2024 · 3 mins read