China Economics Weekly

New developer financing scheme shows promise

The record 25bp cut to the 5Y Loan Prime Rate, the benchmark for price mortgages, captured the headlines this week. But of greater importance to China's property sector is the new "real estate...

23rd February 2024 · 6 mins read

UK Commercial Property Outlook

A recovery, but not much of one

With property yields close to a peak and rental growth surprising on the upside, total returns will turn positive in 2024. But we doubt the fall in risk-free interest rates we expect will trigger any...

23rd February 2024 · 23 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack

Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q1 2024)

Our Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis. The property correction slowed slightly at the end of last year, but we think the fall in capital...

23rd February 2024 · 0 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

Larger mortgages challenge weak house price forecasts

The fact buyers are using lower mortgage rates to borrow more, rather than spend less on repayments, is a major challenge to the view house price growth will be weak in the years ahead. If there has...

23rd February 2024 · 4 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

US Existing Home Sales (Jan. 2024)

The sharp fall in mortgage rates at the end of last year was the catalyst for existing home sales rising in January. But borrowing costs have risen again in recent weeks, which in the near term...

22nd February 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor

Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q1 2024)

Property valuations improved in Q4 on the back of further rises in property yields and falls in alternative asset yields. This resulted in many office and retail markets shifting into fair value...

21st February 2024 · 0 mins read

US Commercial Property Chart Pack

US Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q1 24)

All-property values are down by 15% since mid-2022. But, with cap rates set to climb toward 5.5% by the end of the forecast period, we think capital value falls have some way to go still, with the...

20th February 2024 · 1 min read

Asia Economics Update

Korea: property downturn at an end

After a couple of years in the doldrums, property construction in Korea is rebounding. The recovery in the sector should provide an important prop to economic growth this year.

20th February 2024 · 2 mins read

US Housing Market Update

Single and multi-family construction on different paths

Following the huge fall in multi-family starts in January, we suspect the apartment sector will continue to be a drag on new development this year. But construction of single-family dwellings will...

19th February 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Housing Market Chart Pack

UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Feb. 2024)

The decline in mortgage rates since last summer will allow more first-time buyers to enter the market and lead to a further pick up in mortgage lending. With supply still tight, we think that will...

19th February 2024 · 1 min read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Answering questions from our debt distress Drop-In

This week we held a Drop-In on commercial property distress across the US, UK and Europe. Clients can access a recording here and find related analysis on our dedicated landing page. This Update...

16th February 2024 · 3 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Housing Starts (Jan. 2024)

Housing starts fell by the largest amount since April 2020 in January, led by a huge drop in multi-family starts. We suspect the multi-family sector will continue to be a drag on new development this...

16th February 2024 · 3 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Offices still the most likely source of distress

While we expect the office and multifamily sectors to account for the lion’s share of distressed assets over the next couple of years, there is an important distinction between the two. Unlike...

15th February 2024 · 3 mins read

Global Economics Focus

Have we reached the end of the housing correction?

Housing markets in developed economies have perplexed forecasters since 2019. The boom in prices in 2020-22 was not anticipated, and the fall in prices since has been smaller than expected. In this...

14th February 2024 · 17 mins read

US Commercial Property Rapid Response

Commercial Property Lending (January)

There was a surprisingly sharp increase in the amount of outstanding commercial real estate (CRE) debt held by commercial banks in January, which rose by $10.7bn, the largest monthly increase since...

12th February 2024 · 2 mins read