UK Housing Market Outlook

Housing market to surpass expectations in 2025

House prices will probably remain flat for the rest of 2024, but lower mortgage rates will provide scope for prices to beat expectations next year. Indeed, our forecast that Bank Rate will be lowered...

22nd July 2024 · 17 mins read

UK Economics Weekly

Slump in new homes makes housing target a stretch

Given the UK recently got much closer to the government’s target of building 300,000 homes a year than is acknowledged, you might think that the Planning and Infrastructure Bill announced in the King...

19th July 2024 · 5 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Distress rising, but still a long way to go

With the share of non-performing CMBS loans on the rise, and plenty of loans set to refinance onto a higher rate this year, recent data provide further evidence that distress will rise both this year...

18th July 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

UK looking increasingly attractive compared to France

Newfound political stability in the UK contrasts with the now more uncertain political backdrop in France. A better relative outlook for economic growth and risk-free rates had already led to a...

18th July 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Chart Pack

UK Commercial Property Chart Pack (Jul. 24)

Yields look to have topped out in most sectors and alongside solid rental growth that means capital values are close to bottoming out. However, with no yield compression in sight the recovery will be...

17th July 2024 · 1 min read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Housing Starts (Jun. 2024)

The rise in housing starts and building permits in June is not as good as it seems at first glance, as it was driven by gains in the volatile multi-family sector, which we think will prove temporary...

17th July 2024 · 2 mins read

Canada Economics Update

Canada Housing Watch (Jul. 2024)

Further interest rate cuts from the Bank of Canada should breathe some life into the housing market in the coming months, but the dimmer outlook for rent growth and apartment prices present downside...

16th July 2024 · 4 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Flight to more affordable South set to continue

Many households have left western metros in favor of those in the South over the past two years. With remote working looking like a permanent fixture of office-based jobs and affordability...

16th July 2024 · 4 mins read

US Housing Market Outlook

Market still tight, but slowly moving towards balance

We expect mortgage rates to continue falling, but not by enough to fully offset the effects of mortgage rate ‘lock-in’. As a result, although we expect existing home sales to rebound, we forecast that...

16th July 2024 · 15 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack

Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack (Jul 2024)

The latest data indicate that capacity pressures have continued to ease, a trend that should continue over the coming quarters. However, it will be a while before policymakers can be confident that...

15th July 2024 · 1 min read

Japan Economics Focus

Higher interest rates won’t trigger housing meltdown

While higher interest rates will make owner-occupied housing less affordable, the Bank of Japan will only tighten policy gradually so detached house prices will probably hold up well. By contrast...

15th July 2024 · 15 mins read

Canada Economics Weekly

Rate cuts will offer relief to housing this year

The latest housing market data paint an almost ideal picture for the Bank of Canada, with activity improving, but little sign of a surge in house prices that could derail the downward trend in core...

12th July 2024 · 6 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Sweden REIT distress unlikely to derail recovery

The downgrading of Sweden’s SBB to selective default last week is the latest development for a property market that has faced some of the most acute debt refinancing pressure in Europe. The saga will...

11th July 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

RICS Residential Market Survey (Jun. 2024)

Revival unlikely to materialise as soon as surveyors hope While demand continued to slip back in June, surveyors were optimistic it would soon pick up. Given elevated mortgage rates we suspect the...

11th July 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

Do the latest job figures hint at weaker office rents?

UK employment has faltered of late and, though growth is expected to improve, no return to the buoyancy of the recent past is in prospect. While headcount has become a weaker indicator of office...

10th July 2024 · 3 mins read