Asset Allocation Tempering our optimism We no longer expect equities and corporate bonds to outperform “safe” government bonds by anything like as much as we did a couple of quarters ago, and we continue to forecast that some other “risky”... 21st July 2021 · 25 mins read
UK Housing Post-holiday slump in transactions won’t hit prices It is inevitable that transactions will drop sharply after setting a record high in June. But the stamp duty holiday is just one of several factors behind the housing market boom, so house prices... 21st July 2021 · 2 mins read
US Housing Housing Starts (Jun.) Single-family housing starts rose by 6.3% m/m in June. Despite this, even after the sharp decline in lumber prices in recent weeks there are still signs that supply shortages are holding back... 20th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Teranet House Prices (Jun.) House price inflation accelerated to 16% y/y in June but, with the sales-to-new listing ratio falling in recent months, price inflation will peak in the second half of the year. 20th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update More competition a risk to flexible office activity While longer-term drivers are supportive of flexible offices, we think demand for space will be held back by the slow return of workers to the office, by more competition from home offices and by high... 20th July 2021 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Lower Treasury yield forecasts support property pricing We have pulled back our expectations for Treasury yield rises this year and, to a lesser extent, next year. At the margin, this is positive for real estate pricing as it means that the property to... 16th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Is our weak outlook for Lisbon office rents justified? The slow economic recovery, more remote working and a high supply pipeline are key reasons for our below-consensus forecasts for prime office rental growth in Lisbon in the coming years. 16th July 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Home sales to ease even as mortgage rates stay low Even as mortgage rates have remained low, housing market activity has dropped back as booming house prices, tight credit conditions and a lack of inventory have put off buyers. We expect that dynamic... 15th July 2021 · 17 mins read
UK Housing Credit Conditions Survey (Q2 2021) A further easing of concerns about the outlook for property prices and the economy suggests that mortgage lending conditions will continue to improve. That will help ensure that house prices are... 15th July 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Will booming house prices translate into rents? The recent surge in house price growth to record highs does not automatically mean rental growth is also set to take off. But a strong recovery in rental demand as cities reopen and households make... 14th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update High construction costs unlikely to curb 2021 supply With price pressures in the construction sector likely to prove transitory, we think that the hit to activity will be small. That said, we expect construction activity to slow over the coming years on... 14th July 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Housing A tale of two rental markets While London rents are set to reverse some of the fall of the past year, we doubt the premium of rents in the capital over the national average will return to its pre-virus level. But outside London... 13th July 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Bounce in high-rise demand to give way to gardens There is mounting evidence that the exodus from cities is winding down. As economies reopen, we think that cities will come back to life, bringing a wave of new demand for high-rise apartments. But... 9th July 2021 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Life science hubs set for a period of outperformance The pandemic has accelerated growth in scientific research and development, prompting a boost to demand in key R&D clusters. While we don’t expect the current rates of growth to be sustained, we think... 8th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update CEE office occupier activity past the worst Despite poor employment prospects, we are cautiously optimistic on the outlook for CEE leasing activity as the economic recovery gets underway. However, large supply pipelines mean that improving... 8th July 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Jun.) Activity and house prices were extremely strong again in June according to the RICS survey, although there was a distinct softening in the more forward-looking balances. As supply remains limited, we... 8th July 2021 · 2 mins read
