Latin America Economics Update Interest rates have further to fall in Colombia The Colombian central bank’s (BANREP) decision to keep interest rates on hold does not necessarily signal the end of the easing cycle, but it does suggest that further cuts may be punctuated by pauses... 1st October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Stimulus starting to take hold in Brazil There are signs that policy stimulus is starting to take hold in Brazil. Retail sales are growing, car sales hit a record high in August and even output in the beleaguered industrial sector has... 27th September 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian growth not as strong as it seems Second quarter GDP data from Colombia are not as strong as they seem at first sight. Almost all of the pick-up in growth to 1.6% q/q was driven by a sharp rise in construction output, which tends to... 20th September 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update A closer look at regional growth 2012 has been a year of mixed fortunes for Latin America’s largest economies. In Chile and Peru, growth has bounced back following a minor wobble in late 2011 and both countries are currently... 13th September 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia's Q2 GDP puzzle It is difficult to square the recent statement by the Colombian Finance Minister, Mauricio Cárdenas, that the economy grew by 4.7% y/y in Q2 with the latest activity data. The release of the official... 12th September 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Persistent imbalances in the drivers of growth Growth is still unbalanced in many parts of Latin America. The resilience of domestic demand against a weak global backdrop has helped to bolster service sector activity, even as local industry... 30th August 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update BANREP to continue cutting as growth slows There has been some improvement in the outlook for the Colombian economy in recent weeks, but interest rates will probably still fall further. Indeed, with the euro-zone crisis set to deepen and... 28th August 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: don’t bank on a rapid rebound The rapid turnaround in fortunes for Brazil’s economy has provoked much head-scratching from policymakers and investors alike. We think the key point is that the slowdown in growth owes as much to... 13th August 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia cuts, rates likely to fall further The decision on Friday night by the Colombian Central Bank (BANREP) to cut interest rates followed deterioration in the performance of the economy. The Bank’s dovish comments suggest that rates could... 30th July 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: Disappointing activity data point to rate cuts The latest activity data from Colombia indicate that the economy slowed further in Q2. As a result, while policymakers may await concrete evidence that the recent consumer credit boom has ended, it... 20th July 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian equities should still perform relatively well Having been one of the darlings of the international markets over the past 18 months or so, Colombian equities have had a torrid time in recent weeks. But they remain amongst the best performing in... 18th July 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Spike in agricultural prices unlikely to stoke inflation A sharp jump in some agricultural commodity prices has stoked fears of a renewed spike in inflation in Latin America. But we think that those concerns are misplaced. Indeed, we expect the agricultural... 11th July 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Case for interest rate cuts is building in Colombia The deterioration in the outlook for Colombia has forced us to review our interest rates forecast. With the economy slowing more abruptly than we had expected, the rate cuts that we had pencilled in... 2nd July 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Weaker Chinese demand starting to weigh on exports There are growing signs that falling commodity prices and weaker demand from China are starting to take their toll on the economies of Latin America. In those countries that are most dependent on... 28th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian economy slumped in Q1 The Colombian economy seems to have hit a brick wall in Q1. While it is better placed than most in the region to withstand the turbulence from the euro-zone crisis, we are revising down our GDP growth... 21st June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Latin America’s exports take a turn for the worse A recent drop in regional export growth can be attributed to a number of factors, of which slowing Chinese commodity demand may be the most prominent. We expect export revenues to come under further... 15th June 2012 · 1 min read
