Latin America Economics Update Colombia's Q2 GDP puzzle It is difficult to square the recent statement by the Colombian Finance Minister, Mauricio Cárdenas, that the economy grew by 4.7% y/y in Q2 with the latest activity data. The release of the official... 12th September 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Persistent imbalances in the drivers of growth Growth is still unbalanced in many parts of Latin America. The resilience of domestic demand against a weak global backdrop has helped to bolster service sector activity, even as local industry... 30th August 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update BANREP to continue cutting as growth slows There has been some improvement in the outlook for the Colombian economy in recent weeks, but interest rates will probably still fall further. Indeed, with the euro-zone crisis set to deepen and... 28th August 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: don’t bank on a rapid rebound The rapid turnaround in fortunes for Brazil’s economy has provoked much head-scratching from policymakers and investors alike. We think the key point is that the slowdown in growth owes as much to... 13th August 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia cuts, rates likely to fall further The decision on Friday night by the Colombian Central Bank (BANREP) to cut interest rates followed deterioration in the performance of the economy. The Bank’s dovish comments suggest that rates could... 30th July 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: Disappointing activity data point to rate cuts The latest activity data from Colombia indicate that the economy slowed further in Q2. As a result, while policymakers may await concrete evidence that the recent consumer credit boom has ended, it... 20th July 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian equities should still perform relatively well Having been one of the darlings of the international markets over the past 18 months or so, Colombian equities have had a torrid time in recent weeks. But they remain amongst the best performing in... 18th July 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Spike in agricultural prices unlikely to stoke inflation A sharp jump in some agricultural commodity prices has stoked fears of a renewed spike in inflation in Latin America. But we think that those concerns are misplaced. Indeed, we expect the agricultural... 11th July 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Case for interest rate cuts is building in Colombia The deterioration in the outlook for Colombia has forced us to review our interest rates forecast. With the economy slowing more abruptly than we had expected, the rate cuts that we had pencilled in... 2nd July 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Weaker Chinese demand starting to weigh on exports There are growing signs that falling commodity prices and weaker demand from China are starting to take their toll on the economies of Latin America. In those countries that are most dependent on... 28th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian economy slumped in Q1 The Colombian economy seems to have hit a brick wall in Q1. While it is better placed than most in the region to withstand the turbulence from the euro-zone crisis, we are revising down our GDP growth... 21st June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Latin America’s exports take a turn for the worse A recent drop in regional export growth can be attributed to a number of factors, of which slowing Chinese commodity demand may be the most prominent. We expect export revenues to come under further... 15th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: Intervention unlikely to significantly weaken peso Increased intervention by the Colombian authorities in the foreign exchange market may halt the appreciation of the peso, but it is unlikely to significantly weaken it. Instead, a drop in commodity... 14th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update How real is the threat of protectionism? Concerns that Latin America might be spiralling towards a new era of protectionism have emerged in 2012. But while it is true that the region as a whole has seen an increase in protectionist trade... 13th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Too soon to sound the all-clear on Colombian credit growth While overall credit growth in Colombia is slowing, consumer lending remains uncomfortably strong. The deepening crisis in Europe will probably prevent policymakers from raising rates over the next... 11th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Inflation concerns subsiding in Latin America In line with our forecast, inflation has eased across most of the region in 2012 as the effects of last year’s food price shock work their way out of the annual comparison. We expect this trend to... 6th June 2012 · 1 min read
