Latin America Economics Focus Colombia: towards a period of softer growth Colombia’s economy has been a rare bright spot in Latin America so far this year but, while we don’t expect growth to collapse, we do expect it to slow over 2015-16. This in turn is likely to mean... 23rd September 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: Slower GDP growth points to interest rate hold Today’s weaker-than-expected Colombian GDP data, which showed that the economy grew by 4.3% y/y in Q2 (from 6.4% y/y in Q1), are likely to tip the balance in favour of interest rates being left on... 16th September 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine peso has further to fall The Argentine government has introduced various measures in recent weeks to increase the availability of foreign currency in a bid to stem the depreciation of the peso in both official and unofficial... 15th September 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Treading water Economic growth in Latin America slowed further in the first half of 2014 and we see little chance of a strong rebound over the coming quarters. The key props to strong growth in the past decade are... 8th September 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian tightening cycle nearing the end Colombian policymakers increased interest rates by 25bp to 4.50% on Friday but we think that the current tightening cycle is drawing to a close. The pace of economic growth is likely to slow over the... 1st September 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Mexico turning the corner The past month has brought signs that Mexico’s economy is finally turning the corner. latestdata suggest that the Mexican economy has turned the corner. GDP expanded by a seasonally-adjusted 1.0% q/q... 28th August 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update No signs of contagion from Argentine debt saga The ongoing Argentine debt dispute continues to disrupt local markets, but so far there has been no contagion to the rest of the region. Equities have performed well so far in August, while it has... 26th August 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update A fork in the road Data on vehicle production released over the past month suggest contrasting fortunes for Latin America’s two largest economies. While Mexico seems to be turning a corner and growth over the second... 13th August 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Credit growth cools, but vulnerabilities persist The pace of private sector lending growth in most parts of Latin America has continued to cool this year, but the credit boom of the past decade means that vulnerabilities persist in a few places. At... 5th August 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: interest rates do not have much further to rise Policymakers in Colombia hiked interest rates by another 25bp to 4.25% last night but we do not think that the current tightening cycle has much further to run. Inflation is unlikely to pose a problem... 1st August 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Markets take Argentina’s debt dispute in their stride The Argentine government seems increasingly likely to default on sovereign debt repayments due at the end of this month but the reaction in both local markets and markets in the region more generally... 28th July 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Argentina teeters on the brink of another default With talks between Buenos Aires and holdout bondholders seemingly having stalled, it appears increasingly likely that Argentina will be prevented from making an interest payment that is due on... 25th July 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: strong peso to prevent aggressive interest rate hikes The latest FX intervention programme announced by Colombian policymakers is unlikely to reverse the recent appreciation of the peso against the US$. Accordingly, we expect a strong currency to distort... 10th July 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update More gloom for Brazil’s manufacturers June’s business surveys suggest that manufacturing in Brazil is doing little more than stagnating. By contrast, the outlook for Mexican manufacturers is much brighter – the latest survey data suggest... 1st July 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Contagion from Argentine debt dispute limited So far at least, financial markets in Argentina have largely shrugged off the fact that, barring a last minute deal with holdout creditors, the government now seems destined to enter a technical... 30th June 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack World Cup proving a welcome distraction for Brazil The 2014 Football World Cup is proving to be a welcome distraction from yet more downbeat news on Brazil’s economy over the past month. Our GDP Tracker suggests that, after dropping to just 1.9% y/y... 27th June 2014 · 1 min read
