Latin America Economics Update Colombia: pace of policy tightening to remain gradual Policymakers in Colombia hiked interest rates by another 25bp to 4% on Friday night and we expect the tightening cycle to remain gradual. Inflation is unlikely to be a major headache, while we expect... 23rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: Rapid Q1 growth unlikely to be sustained Strong government spending ahead of Colombia’s presidential elections appears to have supported rapid growth of 6.4% y/y in Q1, but we doubt that the current pace of expansion will be sustained. As... 19th June 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Stuck in the slow lane Latin America’s economy looks set to remain stuck in the slow lane over the next couple of years. The drivers of strong growth over the past decade – including rapid credit growth and strong global... 19th June 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Santos pips Zuluaga in Colombian elections The re-election of Juan Manuel Santos as the president of Colombia will ensure the continuation of peace talks with the FARC, but is unlikely to signal a shift away from the economy’s reliance on... 16th June 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: Gradual interest rate hikes to continue, for now Colombian policymakers have indicated that they expect interest rates to continue rising gradually over the coming months. As such, we are revising up our forecast. But with growth set to slow and... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack GDP growth slowed in Q1, likely to remain sluggish First quarter GDP data released over the past month suggest that the region’s economy slowed further at the start of this year, with growth dipping to just 2.0% y/y in Q1, down from 2.2% y/y in Q4... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia election: Zuluaga leads Santos into a run-off A victory for either Oscar Zuluaga or Juan Manuel Santos in the second round of Colombia’s presidential election next month is unlikely to cause a stir in the markets. But with neither candidate... 27th May 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Bumpy road ahead for Lat Am markets Currencies, equities and bonds have all fared well so far this month after a turbulent past year. While we expect bouts of financial market volatility as US monetary policy becomes less accommodative... 22nd May 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia Election Watch – major reforms unlikely (again) The expected re-election of Juan Manuel Santos as Colombia’s president is good news for peace talks with the FARC, but will probably mean that major economic reforms to boost the competitiveness of... 14th May 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Rising inflation to prevent interest rate cuts despite slow growth Rising inflation looks set to force policymakers in most parts of Latin America to keep monetary policy relatively tight despite evidence that the region is entering a new phase of weaker economic... 9th May 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Aggressive interest rate hikes unlikely in Colombia We do not think that the Colombian central bank’s (BANREP) surprise decision to increase interest rates by 25bp to 3.5% on Friday marks the beginning of an aggressive tightening cycle. With economic... 28th April 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Inflation concerns resurface in Brazil Inflation has started to accelerate once again in Brazil, casting doubt over signals from the central bank that the hike in interest rates earlier this month could be the last in the current... 25th April 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Recovery gains momentum The past month has seen Latin American financial markets perform fairly well, building on the momentum of March’s rebound. But despite the recent gains, we expect some renewed downside this year amid... 23rd April 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia Election Watch – Santos on course for re-election A victory for Juan Manuel Santos in next month’s Colombian presidential election may be welcomed bythe markets, but it is unlikely to herald the beginning of structural reforms. As such, with... 15th April 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update External vulnerabilities mean weak growth, not crisis We have been warning for a very long time that the recent period of strong growth in Latin America has been built on shaky foundations. With external vulnerabilities mounting, several countries in the... 14th April 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Pacific Alliance: Trading up? The Pacific Alliance pact has raised hopes of a boom in intra-regional trade, but the high degree of overlap between the export baskets of the member nations makes that unlikely. Nonetheless, the... 9th April 2014 · 1 min read
