Latin America Economics Focus Chile set to shift into tightening mode Concerns about the recent strength of inflation in Chile are partly overdone given that it has been elevated by tax hikes which will unwind over the next year. But a relatively buoyant labour market... 3rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Retail Sales, Ind. Prod. & Copper Prod. (Feb.) The fall in industrial output in annual terms last month, while disappointing, is unlikely to derail Chile’s incipient economic recovery. The monthly data are volatile, the consumer side of the... 31st March 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Currency sell-off puts paid to further policy loosening Currencies in Latin America have regained some ground over the past week, but have still typically fallen by between 10-20% against the dollar over the past six months. The risk that the slide in... 26th March 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Bank of Chile likely to bide its time Interest rates in Chile were left unchanged at 3% last night but the accompanying statement revealed a subtle shift in tone from the central bank, which now seems to think that inflation is likely to... 20th March 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP & Current Account (Q4) GDP growth in Chile accelerated in both quarterly and annual terms in the final quarter of last year, driven by strong government spending and a sharp pick-up in investment. What’s more, the current... 18th March 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Feb.) Brazilian inflation surged to its highest annual rate in a decade last month and the relentless increase, coupled with the recent sell-off in the real, bolsters the case for interest rate hikes to... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Retail Sales, Ind. Prod. & Copper Prod. (Jan.) A strong rebound in mining output led to a sharp rise in industrial production in January. But mining output is volatile and we wouldn’t read too much into this. Even so, there are signs from the rest... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian real hits weakest level in a decade The Brazilian real has tumbled to its weakest level against the dollar since 2005 in recent days. We suspect that this has more to do with deteriorating economic fundamentals and suggestions from... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update No further rate cuts in Chile, but more to come in Peru Interest rates in both Chile and Peru were left unchanged last night and, while we do not expect further monetary stimulus in Chile as its economy is finally showing signs of strengthening, we think... 13th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Jan.) The sharp rise in Brazilian inflation to 7.1% last month was driven by a combination of higher food prices, caused by the continuing droughts, and increases in regulated prices as part of the... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Retail Sales, Ind. Prod. & Copper Prod. (Dec.) December’s activity data suggest that economic growth in Chile recovered in the fourth quarter of last year. But the bigger picture is that growth over 2014 as a whole was probably just 1.8%, the... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Where do we stand relative to the consensus? We have revised down many of our forecasts in recent weeks and, on the whole, expect GDP growth and inflation in Latin America to be lower than the consensus forecasts this year. As a result... 20th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Surprise rate cut in Peru, further reductions to come Although the timing of last night’s interest rate cut in Peru caught us (and the market) by surprise, we had been one of the few forecasters expecting rates to fall in the first half of this year. The... 16th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Ominous signs from Lat Am current accounts Balance of payments problems in Venezuela and Argentina have deflected attention away from the fact that current account positions across much of the rest of Latin America have deteriorated... 12th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Nov.) & Chile CPI (Dec.) The sharp fall in Brazil industrial production in November leaves it on course to contract in Q4 and suggests the economy ended 2014 on a predictably weak footing. GDP is likely to have done little... 8th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Taking stock of the latest currency sell-off The fall in most Latin American currencies over the past few weeks has taken them through both our end-2014 and our end-2015 forecasts. We still expect most currencies – notably the Brazilian real –... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
