Latin America Economics Update Chile & Peru hold interest rates, but hikes on the horizon The decisions by the Chilean and Peruvian central banks to leave monetary policy unchanged didn’t come as a surprise as, for now, the inflation picture in both economies is improving. But with... 15th July 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Jun.) The drop in Brazil inflation, from 9.3% in May to 8.9% in June, should be followed by further falls over the coming months. That said, our view remains that the central bank will resist lowering... 8th July 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (May) Having fallen in each of the past three months, inflation in Brazil was unchanged at 9.3% y/y in May. We suspect that this is a temporary blip rather than the start of a new trend and think inflation... 8th June 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: Rising unemployment likely to delay rate hikes The Central Bank of Chile’s decision to leave its key policy interest rate unchanged at 3.50% reinforces our view that lingering signs of economic weakness, notably the rising unemployment rate, will... 18th May 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Apr.) Inflation in Brazil and Chile edged down last month and we expect it to continue its downward trend in both countries over the course of this year. 6th May 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Retail Sales, Ind. Prod. & Copper Prod. (Mar.) March activity data for Chile were a mixed bag, but taken together with last month’s strong figures, they suggest that GDP growth picked up to over 2.0 %y/y in Q1. Nonetheless, we don’t expect the... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Retail Sales, Ind. Prod. & Copper Prod. (Feb.) The better-than-expected Chilean activity data for February suggest that, after weakening significantly in recent months, the economy has started to stabilise. Nonetheless, growth is unlikely to pick... 30th March 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP & Current Account (Q4) The sharp slowdown in Chile’s GDP growth in the final quarter of last year means that the economy grew by a disappointing 2.0% over 2015 as a whole and we doubt the economy will pick-up soon. We... 18th March 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Weak Chilean economy means rate hikes will be gradual The Central Bank of Chile’s decision to keep interest rates on hold at 3.50% for the third consecutive month reinforces our view that the weakness of the economy will ensure the pace of further... 18th March 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Consumer Prices (Feb.) The smaller-than-expected fall in Chilean inflation in February suggests that price pressures remain strong. This creates a dilemma for the central bank, which is likely to be reluctant to hike rates... 8th March 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Retail Sales, Ind. Prod. & Copper Prod. (Jan.) Chile’s economy remained relatively weak in January as the industrial sector continued to struggle. While we expect conditions to improve over the course of this year, today’s data underscore the... 29th February 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru hikes again as inflationary pressures build, Chile holds The Peruvian central bank’s decision to hike interest rates by 25bp for the third consecutive month, to 4.25%, as well as the more hawkish tone of the accompanying statement, point to concerns that... 12th February 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Consumer Prices (Jan.) The surge in Chilean inflation in January was largely due to planned tax increases and had been anticipated. As such, we don’t expect it to a trigger a policy response from the central bank and... 8th February 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Retail Sales, Ind. Prod. & Copper Prod. (Dec.) The weaker-than-expected Chilean activity data for December confirm that the economy slowed in Q4. Our GDP Tracker suggests the economy grew by a lacklustre 2.0% y/y over Q4 as a whole. 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru hikes & Chile holds, gradual tightening ahead The decision by Peru’s central bank to hike interest rates for a second consecutive month underlines its concerns about above-target inflation and we have brought forward our forecast for 50bp of... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Dec.) The further rise in Brazilian inflation in December, to a 12-year high of 10.7% y/y, now means that anything less than a 50bp rate hike at this month’s COPOM meeting is likely to see financial markets... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
