Latin America Economics Update Surprise rate cut in Peru, further reductions to come Although the timing of last night’s interest rate cut in Peru caught us (and the market) by surprise, we had been one of the few forecasters expecting rates to fall in the first half of this year. The... 16th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Ominous signs from Lat Am current accounts Balance of payments problems in Venezuela and Argentina have deflected attention away from the fact that current account positions across much of the rest of Latin America have deteriorated... 12th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Nov.) & Chile CPI (Dec.) The sharp fall in Brazil industrial production in November leaves it on course to contract in Q4 and suggests the economy ended 2014 on a predictably weak footing. GDP is likely to have done little... 8th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Taking stock of the latest currency sell-off The fall in most Latin American currencies over the past few weeks has taken them through both our end-2014 and our end-2015 forecasts. We still expect most currencies – notably the Brazilian real –... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Interest rates in Chile and Peru to fall further in 2015 Interest rates in Chile were left unchanged at 3.00% last night but, with the economic recovery expected to be slow-going and inflation likely to have peaked, we are sticking to our non-consensus... 12th December 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Easing cycle not over in Chile Interest rates in Chile were left unchanged last night at 3.00% and, although policymakers continued to signal the end of the easing cycle, we still think that it has a little further to run. With... 19th November 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP & Current Acc. (Q3) Annual GDP growth in Chile dropped to a five-year low in Q3, but on a quarterly basis growth edged up a little. We expect a further, albeit gradual, recovery over the coming quarters. Meanwhile, the... 18th November 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook A limp recovery The growing pile of cash held abroad by US firms, which has now reached more than $2trn, or 12% of GDP, is unlikely to provide much of a boost to the economy, not least because the prospects of that... 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Oct.) The larger-than-expected drop in Brazilian inflation last month will come as a welcome relief to policymakers but is unlikely to prevent interest rates from rising further over the coming months... 7th November 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile’s economy slowed further in Q3 Data for September suggest that conditions in some parts of Chile’s economy – notably manufacturing – improved following a weak performance in August. But the bigger picture is that GDP growth appears... 29th October 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Further interest rate cuts still likely in Chile Interest rates in Chile were cut by 25bp to 3.00% last night and, although the accompanying statement suggests that we may be nearing the end of the easing cycle, we expect further cuts over the next... 17th October 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Lower commodity prices and what they mean for Lat Am Fresh falls in global commodity prices in recent weeks have stoked concerns about how Latin America will fare as the tailwinds from the global commodities boom fade. The short point is that regional... 13th October 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Lat Am markets suffer more than most in latest EM sell-off Markets in Latin America have been hit particularly hard in the latest EM sell-off. A combination of factors has been responsible, including falling commodity prices and a renewed focus on the likely... 30th September 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Growth concerns come to the fore The past month has seen renewed concerns about the growth outlook for much of Latin America. GDP in the region grew by just 1.1% y/y in Q2 and the available data so far point to a similar pace of... 26th September 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine peso has further to fall The Argentine government has introduced various measures in recent weeks to increase the availability of foreign currency in a bid to stem the depreciation of the peso in both official and unofficial... 15th September 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update A period of low interest rates for Chile and Peru Interest rates were cut by 25bp in both Chile and Peru last night and policymakers have room to reduce rates further if growth continues to slow. With little chance of a significant rebound in growth... 12th September 2014 · 1 min read
